Unlike the Heat, who love to load up the injury report for no reason, Joel Embiid is legitimately questionable Thursday. It’s hard to approach that game from a betting perspective until his status is clear, but there is a Heat prop worth looking at. Here’s how to best navigate Thursday’s NBA Playoffs action via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
With Kyle Lorwy out, Vincent is in position to log 25-plus minutes like he did in the first two games of this series. Although he didn’t log a turnover throughout 27 minutes in Game 5, Vincent had two in each of the first two games of this series. Throughout the regular season, Vincent logged two or more turnovers 30 times. Twenty-seven of those performances came in games that he logged at least 23 minutes — a minute total he reached 42 times throughout 2021-22. Given the expected minutes total and the fact he hasn’t logged a turnover since Game 2, Vincent is due.
After going off on the Jazz, it took a little while for Brunson to get it together vs. the Suns. But since the Mavericks returned to Dallas for Game 3 of this series, Brunson has gotten back on track. The Dallas guard has shot 43.7% from the floor since Game 3 while taking anywhere from 17-22 shots per game. He’s taken anywhere from one to five 3-pointers during this small stretch, so his long-range game can’t be heavily relied on. But, he’s getting anywhere from four to seven free-throw attempts per game, which is a nice accent to the shot volume he’s getting.
As for his rebounding, Brunson has logged four-plus rebounds in every game this series. Last round, he only went under this number once. He also went over this number in 11 of the last 19 regular season games he played in. Lastly, in three regular season meetings vs. the Suns, Brunson went over both of these numbers every game.
Outside of the series opener, the Mavericks have gone over this number every game this series. Even in the one contest they went under, Dallas narrowly missed the over on this total. Although they weren’t the best first-quarter offense during the regular season, the Mavericks did average 27.6 first quarter points per game. The Suns were tough in the opening quarter throughout the regular season, but they still gave up 26.9 a night. With things shifting back to Dallas and the Mavericks’ backs against the wall, Luka Doncic and company will absolutely try to create significant separation early.
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