Monday is usually a light day for MLB, but we have plenty of games to choose from this Monday. There are 13 games currently on the docket, including an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
The Pick: Orioles ML (+175)
I have a ton of respect for this Yankees squad. They have arguably the best pitching staff and offense in baseball, and I think they deserve to be the betting favorites to win the World Series at this point. They did suffer a defeat vs. the White Sox on Saturday, but they’ve still cruised to an elite 25-9 record to start the season. That puts them on pace for an absurd 119 wins.
That said, I do think they’re a bit overpriced for Monday’s matchup vs. the Orioles. They’re taking on Kyle Bradish, who entered the year as one of the Orioles' top pitching prospects. His results have been solid in three starts at the major league level, posting a 4.24 ERA and an 8.47 K/9.
That said, his advanced metrics suggest he could be even better. Bradish has pitched to a 3.19 SIERA and a 3.37 xFIP, which means he’s gotten a bit unlucky. It’s possible he takes a step forward on Monday, even in a brutal matchup vs. the Yankees.
I’m willing to roll the dice on Bradish as nearly a 2-1 underdog.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
The Cardinals are coming off an offensive explosion on Sunday night, racking up 15 runs in an impressive win over the Giants. Things went so well for the Cardinals that they allowed Albert Pujols to pitch the ninth inning. None of the Cardinals’ traditional relievers should be worried about their job security – Pujols allowed four runs in his inning of work – but it was a cool moment for baseball fans.
However, the Cardinals will now have to make a quick turnaround to start a series vs. the Mets. It’s not a daunting trip from St. Louis to New York, but teams tend to struggle after playing on Sunday Night Baseball.
Additionally, both of these offenses have been subpar in terms of their Statcast data. Even after their offensive explosion last night, the Cardinals still rank dead last in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. The Mets aren’t much better, ranking in the bottom-six in both categories.
Neither team has a particularly imposing pitcher on the mound on Monday, but the under has plenty of value given these teams' propensity for weak contact.
The Pick: Pirates ML (+135)
The Pirates became part of a weird statistical anomaly on Sunday. They became just the sixth team since 1901 to win a game without recording a single hit. That performance came against the Reds, which is the perfect encapsulation of their season. Even when the Reds do great things, they still can’t find a way to win.
The Pirates will face a bit stiffer test on Monday, but the Cubs are still very beatable. Opposing southpaw Drew Smyly will get the call for Chicago, and he’s pitched to a 4.49 FIP through his first six starts. His strikeout rate is way down – his 6.37 K/9 would represent a new career low – and the Pirates’ offense has been far better against left-handers than right-handers this season.
The Pirates are also shaping up as a preferred target for the sharps. They’ve garnered 60% of the dollars on just 51% of the bets, which has caused this line to dip from +140 to +130. I obviously would’ve preferred the +140, but there’s still value with the current number.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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