Tuesday’s MLB slate is absolutely loaded. There were a couple of rainouts on Monday, so we have a whopping 18 games to choose from on Tuesday. That gives us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
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Under 7.0 runs (-115)
The scoring has gradually started to pick up, which is not all that surprising. Despite the complaints about the baseball, the weather has always had a huge impact on scoring. As the temperature heats up, so does the scoring.
Still, this seems like a good spot to go back to the under. The Rays will turn to Shane McClanahan, who has been fantastic to start the season. He’s pitched to a 2.52 ERA through his first seven outings, and his advanced metrics suggest he has some room for improvement. He’s been victimized by an extremely high HR/FB rate, with 26.3% of his fly balls flying over the fence. His 1.65 xFIP – which normalizes a pitcher’s home run rate to the league average – is the best mark in the league by nearly half a run. If he can keep the ball in the ballpark a bit more regularly, he has the potential to be one of the best starters in baseball.
The Tigers will turn to Beau Brieske, and he’s not nearly as imposing. Still, he’s found success despite some pedestrian underlying metrics, pitching to an ERA of just 3.86.
Finally, these two offenses have also been mediocre at best. The Tigers own the third-worst xwOBA this season, while the Rays rank 20th. Add it all up, and this is another strong under matchup.
Mariners ML (+110)
This matchup features an intriguing pitching showdown between Logan Gilbert and Jose Berrios. Berrios has the better reputation as a stud pitcher, especially after signing a seven-year, $131M contract with the Blue Jays in the offseason.
However, Berrios has always been a bit overrated. He’s never pitched to an ERA better than 3.52, and he’s shown some massive regression this season. His ERA has jumped all the way to 5.82, and his 7.39 xERA doesn’t suggest much room for growth. That’s the scariest part with Berrios; he hasn’t necessarily gotten unlucky.
Meanwhile, Gilbert is on the rise. He entered last year as the Mariners’ top pitching prospect and the No. 24 prospect overall per FanGraphs. He struggled in his first season, but he’s pitched to a 2.13 ERA this season. He’s likely due for some regression, but his 3.57 xERA is still miles better than Berrios.
With that in mind, I’m happy to grab the Mariners as underdogs in this matchup.
Giants -1.5 runs (-110)
I don’t often like to target favorites in MLB betting. Favorites are often overpriced, especially when they have a good pitcher on the mound.
However, the Giants are actually pretty reasonably priced on Tuesday with Alex Cobb on the mound. They’re listed at -160 on the moneyline, and you can drop those odds to -110 if you take the run line. Cobb doesn’t have the reputation of being a stud pitcher, but his results from the past two years have been excellent. He posted a 2.92 FIP with the Angels in 2021, and he’s racked up a 2.17 FIP through his first five starts this season. He’s struck out an elite 12.39 batters per nine innings, and the only reason his ERA isn’t better is a fluky .365 batting average on balls in play. His 1.42 xERA is one of the best marks in the league.
The Giants also have a quality offense, and they should be able to put up plenty of runs in Coors Field. They’re taking on Chad Kuhl, who posted a dreadful 5.31 FIP with the Pirates last season. Moving from Pittsburgh to Colorado is the most drastic negative possible for a pitcher, so his 2.88 ERA to start the season has been shocking. Still, he’s relied on an unsustainable .220 BABIP, so he’s a prime regression candidate moving forward.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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