Monday’s slate is a bit light on baseball action, with just a six-game main slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. Still, there are plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
The Pick: Under 6.5 runs (+100)
This is an absurdly low total, but unders have been absolutely dominant to start the year. The over had a big day on Sunday, but unders have still posted a record of 184-135-13 in 2022. That’s good for a return on investment of approximately +10%, and a $100 bettor would be up more than $3,300 if they bet the under on each game this season.
These two teams also set up perfectly for an under. The under is 16-7 in Diamondbacks games this season, and it’s 13-8 for the Marlins. Neither team is particularly strong offensively. The Diamondbacks own the worst xBA in the league, and they’re just 25th in xwOBA. The Marlins are a bit better, but they still rank just 19th in runs per game.
Both teams also have quality pitchers on the hill on Monday. The Diamondbacks will turn to their ace in Zac Gallen, who has been dominant to start the year. He owns just a 0.60 ERA and a 1.98 xERA through his first three starts, so he should be able to keep the Marlins’ offense at bay. Pablo Lopez has been even better for the Marlins, pitching to a 0.39 ERA over his first 23 1/3 innings. Overall, expect runs to be at a premium in this matchup.
The Pick: Mets ML (-115)
What does Chris Bassitt have to do to get some respect? He’s been phenomenal to start the year, allowing more than one run in just one of his first four outings. That came against the Giants, who lead the league in runs per game, and he was also significantly unlucky. He generated tons of soft contact in that appearance, but those balls managed to find grass instead of gloves.
The Braves were one of the best offensive teams in baseball last year, but they have struggled out of the gates. They rank just 20th in runs per game, and while they're due for some significant positive regression, that will be tough to come by against Bassitt. Ultimately, I’m willing to back the Mets as small home favorites.
The Pick: Yankees ML (-115)
The Yankees have been red hot recently, averaging more than eight runs over their past seven games. While the rest of the league struggles to adjust to the new baseball, the Yankees continue to absolutely launch it. They lead the league in basically every possible offensive metric: average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xBA, xwOBA and xSLG. They lead most of those categories by a pretty wide margin, as well.
The Yankees also continue to get some of the best production in baseball from their pitchers. They rank second in the league in team ERA, combining solid starting pitching with one of the best bullpens in the league. Overall, there’s no question this has been the best team in baseball to start the year.
Expect their offense to keep things rolling Monday vs. Ross Stripling. Stripling is a solid pitcher — he owns a 3.06 xERA this season — but he doesn’t strike out many batters. He also has a low groundball rate, so he relies on batters hitting fly balls to record outs. That’s a bad formula against the Yankees and their elite batted-ball profile.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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