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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Heat vs. Celtics Showdown on May 23

Stan Son gives his top picks for Monday’s Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Heat and Celtics.

The Boston Celtics look to bounce back after relinquishing the home court they ascertained with their split in Miami. Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are both questionable and their status could play a huge role in the outcome of Game 4. The Miami Heat have their own injury concerns as well with Jimmy Butler being questionable with a knee issue. No MRI was needed and the injury doesn’t sound serious, but it was something that he dealt with during the regular season. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Celtics favored by 6.5 points, with the total at 208. Since the All-Star break, including the playoffs, Boston has lost consecutive games only once.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for Showdown contests on DraftKings.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (MIA vs BOS)


Captain’s Picks

Jayson Tatum ($16,500) - Tatum was terrible in Game 3, scoring only 10 points on 3-for-14 shooting. He ended with 21 DKFP. I expect him to bounce back in a big way for Game 4. Recency bias could shift some of the ownership over to Adebayo and Brown as well, especially since they are both cheaper and had excellent games on Saturday. The usage rate was only 23.3% in Game 3 for Tatum, after being 27.5% and 30.2% in the first two games. The playoffs are all about adjustments, so the defensive attention pendulum may swing over to Brown with the usage rate bouncing back for Tatum. In these playoffs, Tatum has gone for over 40 DKFP in 11 of 14 games with two over 60. Against the Bucks, he put up 24.3 DKFP then responded with 55.8 in the next contest.

Jimmy Butler ($15,900) - Butler only played 20 minutes in Game 3 due to knee soreness. He’s questionable but no MRI was needed. With Adebayo having a monster Game 3 and the questionable tag for Butler, the ownership could tilt away from Butler. If I’m going with a Heat player, it will be Butler. The floor/ceiling is the best on the team and there could be some depressed ownership. In these playoffs, Butler has gone over 50 DKFP eight times with four over 60 and a high of 72.8. Adjustments will be made for Adebayo and the potential return of Robert Williams could factor there as well.

FLEX Plays

Robert Williams ($6,400) - Williams is questionable for Game 4 so make sure he’s playing first. He has been improving and I think he plays in this critical contest. In the first two games of the series, he played 28 and 20 minutes, producing 34.3 and 17.5 DKFP. In that 17.5-DKFP game, the Celtics won by 25 points. When he’s on the court, he racks up rebounds, defensive stats and gets tons of alley-oops. His defensive presence could be vital in limiting Adebayo.

Jaylen Brown ($9,800) - Brown went for 40 points in Game 3 and finished with 54.8 DKFP. No one on the Heat can guard him one-on-one, as he’s able to get to the rim at will and his jumper from downtown has been pure. There have been shooting efficiency issues at times during the season, but in these playoffs, he’s shot below 40% only once with seven games over 50%. Against Miami, he’s shot 70%, 52.9% and 41.2%.

Value

Caleb Martin ($1,400) - Martin has played 13, 18 and 10 minutes during this series. He’s gone for 10 and 13.8 DKFP in the last two games. In these playoffs, he’s produced double-digit DKFP in six contests. He won’t play over 20 minutes, but when he’s on the floor, he will get his shots up. The usage rate has been 20%, 18.2% and 13.8% this series.

Fades

Bam Adebayo ($7,600) - Adebayo was fantastic in Game 3, finishing with 31 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, one block and four steals. That was good for 63.5 DKFP. Adebayo is a fantastic player and very skilled, but this was an outlier performance. Butler only played 20 minutes and in the prior four games of the playoffs, Adebayo scored fewer than 26 DKFP in all. He’s scored at least 40 DKFP only five times in these playoffs. The Celtics are going to make adjustments for Adebayo and the potential return of Williams could help in that.

The Outcome

As mentioned in the intro, the Celtics have lost two in a row only once since the All-Star break. In Game 3, they shot a higher percentage than the Heat and won the rebound and free throw battles. Unfortunately, they committed 24 turnovers which led to 33 points for Miami. I expect them to take care of the ball in Game 4 and win in convincing fashion.

Final score: Celtics 108, Heat 94

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Shootaround [$150K to 1st] (MIA vs BOS)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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