We get our annual look at Colonial Country Club this week in Fort Worth Texas, a 7,209 yard Par 70 venue that has hosted a regular season event on the PGA TOUR nearly every season since 1946.
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Colonial is one of the more classic tracks on the PGA TOUR, and like many older courses, it features tight fairways and plenty of old over hanging trees that make accuracy off the tee a premium. These types of courses tend to produce bunched leaderboards and bring plenty of different styles of golfer into play. In 2022, we saw Jason Kokrak win his second of three titles with a performance that saw him gain over five strokes on approach and putting. Kokrak’s stats fit right in line with what we typically see from winners at this venue as five of the last six winners at Colonial have gained over five strokes putting for the week of their win.
The average winning score at Colonial the past three seasons has been in the low-to-mid teen range with Kokrak (-14), Daniel Berger (-15) and Kevin Na (-13) all posting winning scores within two shots of each other. From a trends perspective, players wining at Colonial have also often had some good course experience under their belt. Four of the last six winners of the Charles Schwab finished T14 or better at Colonial in the season directly prior to their win. Playing the course and getting in contention in previous seasons seems to be helpful then.
From an odds perspective, this venue has also been a good one for us to target players in the mid-range of the outright selection board. Daniel Berger (+6600), Kevin Na (+5000 to +6600) and Jason Kokrak (+5000) all had their odds sit at +5000 or bigger in the outright department the week prior to tee off. Each of the three men were ranked in the top 100 of the OWGR at time of their wins as well, with Kokrak and Berger firmly inside the top-50.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Abraham Ancer to Win (+4000)
This course is a perfect fit for Ancer who ranks third in driving accuracy and is 12th in strokes gained putting on bentgrass greens over the past 50 rounds. Ancer has finished T14 at Colonial in each of the past two seasons and has also had a lot of success at courses with good correlation to this week, like TPC Stadium and Harbour Town. His history at Colonial also gives us that nice added experience bump that many recent champions have had. It’s almost a little surprising to see his number this big for the week as he’s coming off a strong PGA Championship where he finished T9 and gained over three strokes on approach, his best mark in that metric in 2022. At +4000 Ancer he’s a good way to start off betting cards on a week where the mid-range should be our primary target.
Gary Woodland to Win (+5000)
I went back and forth on this pick a couple of times but ultimately like siding with Woodland for our second pick. Woodland is still seeking a back-up victory to his 2019 US Open triumph but he’s looked mighty close to making that happen of late. He’s trending well in short term tee-to-green stats and also has better putting upside than people realize having gained over three strokes putting now in three of his last nine starts on the PGA TOUR. He’s been solid at technical tracks like Colonial throughout his career too, landing top-five finishes at the Sony Open and a win at Valspar, on a course that correlates nicely with this week. Woodland finished inside the top-15 at Colonial in each of the past two seasons and should be less fatigued than some of the other top players given he wasn’t in contention at the PGA. He’s a solid target and a player who looks ready to breakthrough again soon.
Stephan Jaeger to Win (+20000) | Top 10 (+1400)
If anyone is taking confidence from Mito Pereira nearly winning a major championship last week its Jaeger, who won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and battled Pereira for top honors there for much of the year. Jaeger has been up and down as a PGA pro but is displaying some of the best ball-striking of his life at the moment having gained over four strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. His around-the-green game (ranked second in ATG stats over the past 50 rounds) and putting upside (fourth in strokes gained putting on bentgrass greens over the past 50 rounds) matches that of past winners Kevin Na and Kevin Kisner, making Colonial look like a solid fit. If you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle this week, go with Jaeger whose +20000 odds look massive for a player with six professional wins since 2016.
Webb Simpson Top 20 (+160)
Luke Donald Top 40 (+400)
For a little bit of placing action why not take the +160 on offer for Webb Simpson, who typically dominates courses like Colonial. Simpson hasn’t played this venue since 2020, but posted two top-five finishes at Colonial between 2015-2017. The veteran has often been great the week after majors with multiple top-five finishes at the similarly constructed Harbour Town, which is seen on the PGA TOUR the week after the Masters.
For some slightly bigger odds, I also like the +400 on offer for Luke Donald to grind us a top-40. Donald is leaking a ton of strokes off the tee of late every week, but his putter has been more consistent of late and he ranks a shocking fifth in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds. He’s finished well inside the top-40 in two of his last six starts and Colonial is the type of track he used to dominate when he was at the peak of his form. The odds are juicy enough to take a shot that the veteran’s irons and putter make up for his terrible off-the-tee performance and get there for us this week.
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