Tuesday features another full evening of baseball action. All 30 teams are scheduled to play, with 12 games making up 7:05 p.m. ET main slate.
Marlins ML (+135)
Tuesday’s matchup between the Marlins and Rays features a battle of star-caliber pitchers. The Rays will turn to Shane McClanahan, who has pitched to a 2.33 ERA through his first eight starts this season. He’s also punched out 12.63 batters per nine innings, resulting in a 2.44 xERA and a 2.70 FIP. His only real bugaboo has been his tendency to allow home runs, with a whopping 20.7% of his fly balls turning into big flies.
As good as McClanahan has been, the Marlins arguably have the superior arm on the mound in Pablo Lopez. He’s not quite as good at racking up strikeouts — he’s generated 9.39 strikeouts per nine innings this season — but he makes up for it with elite Statcast data. Opposing batters boast a hard-hit rate of just 22.7% against Lopez, which is tied for the fifth-lowest mark among qualified starters. Overall, Lopez has posted a dominant 1.57 ERA this season, and his advanced numbers don’t portend much regression in the future.
Offensively, the Rays are definitely better than the Marlins, but grabbing the Fish at +135 with Lopez on the mound is too tempting to pass up.
Rangers ML (+135)
The Rangers are another moderate underdog that make a lot of sense on Tuesday. They have a matchup vs. Noah Syndergaard, who was once one of the most feared pitchers in baseball. However, arm injuries have turned Syndergaard into a completely different pitcher. His average fastball velocity is down to just 94.6 miles per hour this season, which is a far cry from his mark of 99.7 in 2018. That’s had a major impact on his strikeout numbers, with Syndergaard averaging just 6.6 punchouts per nine innings through his first six starts.
Syndergaard has still found some success at a lower velocity, posting a 3.60 ERA through 30 innings. Still, it’s hard to imagine that continuing as the weather heats up. His 4.31 xERA is mediocre, so Syndergaard stands out as just a middling starting pitching option.
Dane Dunning will get the ball for the Rangers, and his outlook is a bit rosier than Syndergaard’s. He’s a more capable strikeout pitcher at this point, giving him a solid 3.79 FIP and 3.29 xFIP.
The Angels offense is no joke, but I think Dunning can do enough to keep them in check. The Rangers offense has been a major disappointment this season, but I like their chances in this spot.
Under 7.5 runs (-105)
In a battle of the Sox, which color has the advantage? I like the White Sox on Tuesday, but there’s not a ton of value with them at -165 on the moneyline.
Instead, let’s take a look at the under on 7.5 runs. The main reason why the White Sox are sizable favorites is they’ll have Dylan Cease on the mound. He’s been striking out opposing batters at will this season, generating 13.81 punchouts per nine innings. His 3.09 ERA is good, but his 2.23 xERA and 2.17 FIP are excellent. He should be able to minimize the scoring vs. the Red Sox, who have been middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitchers this season.
Nick Pivetta hasn’t been quite as good for the Red Sox, but his 3.76 FIP is solid. The White Sox have also struggled mightily against right-handers this season, ranking just 28th in wRC+.
Add it all up, and runs should be hard to come by in this matchup. I’m happy to grab the under on 7.5.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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