DraftKings contributor Garion Thorne and Steve Buchanan join The Sweat to give their favorite DraftKings value plays for Tuesday’s MLB slate.
Watch today’s entire episode of The Sweat below!
Looking at the Diamondbacks, and I think the one guy that stands out is Pavin Smith, who’s $3,400. Seems like he’s locked into the No. 2 spot in that lineup when they face a right-handed pitcher, and the right-handed pitcher tonight: Jonathan Heasley — who has started two games so far this season, has thrown 8 1/3 innings and has managed to strike out two batters to his seven walks. He’s got a 6.02 expected ERA.
This is not someone who had much prospect pedigree to begin with. He’s only up here pitching for the Royals because he has to be up here pitching for the Royals. They just don’t have anyone else. He is not a major league-caliber arm, and I think the Diamondbacks, who have really rounded into form offensively the last three or four weeks, are going to have a big night.
Smith is only $3,400, again, hitting up in the top third of that lineup. He’s also got a .383 expected wOBA against right-handed pitching so far this season — that is the second-best mark on the Diamondbacks. If they score a lot of runs tonight, I think Smith is right in the middle of it all.
Sticking with that team, Alek Thomas, one of their top prospects, who was called up not too long ago, in the same match up here. You look at his numbers against righties, and obviously this is a bit of a small sample, but a .461 wOBA, a .323 isolated power and a 197 wRC+. He has come up, and he has produced like the Diamondbacks hoped he would, and he’s kind of solidifying a spot here in this lineup.
So, for a lot of the same reasons that Garion just said, and you have Thomas, who’s even cheaper at $2,900, and he’s been hitting it in a decent spot in the order, as well. They’ve bumped him up to the seventh spot in the lineup — obviously not the most ideal spot (for) daily fantasy purpose(s), but it also helps bring his ownership down. If people are stacking the Diamondbacks, they’re not going to be necessarily looking to the seventh hitter.
But quite frankly, if Thomas keeps hitting as well as he is, it’s not going to be long until he moves up in that lineup. Maybe that isn’t in accordance to tonight, but you’re getting a cheap power hitter hitting lower in the lineup, and the ownership is just simply not going to be there. So, for all the reasons that Garion just mentioned, give me Thomas at much lower ownership in that Diamondbacks lineup.
Garion’s Pick: Pavin Smith ($3,400)
Steve’s Pick: Alek Thomas ($2,900)
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