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MLB Picks for May 25: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 25.

Plenty of day baseball to bet on, but we’ll focus on the later games Wednesday while assessing the options available on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Total over 7.5 runs -110

JP Sears might hum, but there’s a reason he’s New York’s No. 12 pitching prospect at 26 years of age — he’s got a flat fastball. As much as the Orioles are one of the worst offenses, if not the worst, against left-handed pitching, this is a spot for guys like Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander to make hard contact — which they’ve all done against righties this season. If you’re looking for a hitter prop from this game, Trey Mancini to go over 1.5 total bases is a strong option at +125.

As for the other half of this play, the Yankees are a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching, whether you’re looking at OPS, ISO, wOBA or hard-contact. Tyler Wells tossed four shutout innings in his first start vs. the Yankees, but then they got to him for two runs over five frames the next time out. Still a fine start, but the Yankees clearly made adjustments.


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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases +105

Keep tabs on the weather in Atlanta. Looks like they’ll get this one in, but of the two games with weather concerns on Wednesday’s main slate, this one is the larger concern.

Now, getting Harper at just over even-money in this matchup is surprising. He’s had a great month, especially against right-handed pitching. His 37.5% hard-contact rate against righties has led to a .474 ISO and .519 wOBA against righties. Eight of his 15 May extra-base hits have come against right-handers, including five of his seven home runs — putting his home run prop (0.5 at +330) in play if you’re looking to throw a dart.

Also, Harper is 7-for-20 with one home run and a triple against Charlie Morton, who has struggled against left-handed hitting this season.


Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox

Red Sox ML +145

Weather is also a bit of a concern for this one, but looks like it could just be an early-game issue. If it’s a mid-game problem at all, it plays into Boston’s hand if Lucas Giolito’s rhythm gets thrown off or his outing is shortened. But the weather doesn’t need to have that type of impact to make this an appealing play.

The White Sox have very good numbers against left-handed pitching, ranking in the top seven for ISO, OPS and wOBA. Rich Hill might seem like an appealing matchup from a DFS standpoint, but he’s generated a ton of soft contact from both right-handed (30%) and left-handed (27.3%) hitters this month. He’s also generating a lot of ground balls (43.3% ground-ball rate against righties and 45.5% against lefties).

More importantly, Hill has some red-hot hitters behind him, and they’re facing a pitcher who’s taken a step back this month. Giolito has given up four home runs over his last three starts, playing a part in that 40% fly-ball rate he has in May. More importantly, his 4.43 May FIP indicates he’s due for a few more rough days.


Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians

Astros -1.5 +105

Cal Quantrill has racked up a quality start in four of his last five starts. However, he’s given up a lot of hard contact this month (37.5%) and fly balls (41.8% fly-ball rate). Righties also have a 28.1% line-drive rate against him, which is asking for trouble against this Houston lineup.

Quatrill has a solid group of relievers behind him, but their 3.82 FIP in May indicates they’re due for a bit of regression. The same can be said of Houston’s bullpen with its 2.06 ERA vs. 3.07 FIP in May, but Astros relievers are clearly among the best groups in the game right now.

Ahead of them will be Cristian Javier, who’ll face a Cleveland lineup that’s been tough on right-handed pitching this season. But for all the damage Jose Ramirez has done to power his team recently, May hasn’t been too kind to the Guardians. Since the first of the month, they’ve been a bottom-10 offense in wOBA, ISO, OPS and hard-contact rate.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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