:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70919051/1398673322.0.jpg)
Saturday features a six-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.
PITCHER
Stud
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($9,900) — Every season, Musgrove gets better. It’s early, but every metric has improved in 2022 for Musgrove. That’s not completely true. His K rate has dropped 2% (27.1% to 25.1%), but his BB rate has been nearly cut in half (7.2% to 4.4%). More importantly, Musgrove is doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park (0.69 HR/9 in 2022 compared to 1.09 in 2021). These improvements have allowed Musgrove to pitch deeper into games — he’s averaging an additional inning pitched per game this season. Last but not least, Musgrove is facing the Pirates — 86 wRC+, .290 wOBA, .125 ISO, 29% hard contact rate and a 25% K rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option — Tony Gonsolin ($9,100)
Value
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres ($8,000) — First off, this might be a slate where DFS players should spend up on both pitchers. If not, then Brubaker is a value option worth considering. Positive regression is around the corner, but he might have to wait a little longer for that first win. His traditional stats are lacking, but Brubaker is limiting contact (73%), and he’s generating strikeouts (25% K rate). His 63% strand rate should normalize and his biggest weakness — 53% fly ball rate and 32% hard contact — won’t hold him back against the soft hitting Padres (94 wRC+, .298 wOBA, .123 ISO and 28% hard contact rate vs. right-handed pitching).
Other Option — Michael Lorenzen ($8,300), Jose Urquidy ($6,000)
INFIELD
Stud
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners ($5,200) — The 32-year-old takes a while to get going. Altuve’s numbers in the opening month of the last four seasons have been weak, but he always bounces back. Since May 1, Altuve has a .474 wOBA, .366 ISO and 223 wRC+. His eight home runs in May are the third most. Even counting his slow start, he has a .393 wOBA, .227 ISO and 167 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Logan Gilbert ($9,400) has taken a big leap forward in his second season, but he is still allowing a .329 wOBA, .163 ISO, 43% hard contact rate and 1.26 HR/9 to right-handed batters. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but on this slate, the hard contact rate and home runs allowed stand out.
Eugenio Suárez, Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros ($4,600) — With exceptional pitchers taking the mound, paying up for batters may not be the best option. Suárez still can’t hit for average (.202 in 2020, .198 in 2021 and .235 in 2022), but he still has his power. Leaving Cincinnati has not hurt Suárez because his home runs are home runs everywhere (106 career home runs at home and 96 career home runs on the road). Against right-handed pitching, Suárez has a .340 wOBA, .246 ISO and 132 wRC+. Jose Urquidy ($6,000) is one of the few spots that can be targeted on this slate. He is struggling with right-handed batters — .359 wOBA, .212 ISO, 37 % hard contact rate, 2.3 HR/9 and a 44% fly ball rate.
Other Options — Freddie Freeman ($5,800)
Value
Luis Guillorme, New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies ($2,600) — Value options typically lack power and Guillorme is not any different. Since Apr. 21, his ISO is .135, but he has a .442 wOBA and 192 wRC+ in spite of the lack of power. What he lacks in power, he makes up for with multi-hit upside. He’s a pesky hitter that puts the bat on the ball. The lefty tortures right-handed pitchers (.403 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and a 12% K rate vs. RHP). Zach Eflin ($6,900) has allowed a .355 wOBA to left-handed batters this season.
Edwin Ríos, Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,600) — While several of the Dodgers are struggling at the plate, Ríos has emerged as a top bat in this lineup. He has always projected to have a lot of power (steamer projected a .221 ISO in 2022), but he strikes out too much. He’s still striking out, but he’s also crushing the ball, especially against righty-handed pitchers (.370 wOBA, .302 ISO and a 141 wRC+ in 53 at-bats). Merrill Kelly ($7,800), like most of the pitchers on this slate, is having a good season, but his .179 ISO to left-handed batters is a weakness that stands out on Saturday night.
Other Options — Ty France ($4,000)
OUTFIELD
Stud
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($5,700) — Good hitters can beat good pitchers — value hitters, not so much. With good pitching across the board, Trout is one of the few reliable bats on the slate. His numbers this season are unbelievable. He ranks first in wRC+, second in HRs, second in xwOBA, first in wOBA, second in ISO and ninth in Fly Ball rate.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets ($5,400) — Taiwan Walker ($7,600) is one of the worst pitcher on the slate, but he’s not a bad pitcher (4.12 xFIP and a 53% groundball rate). Walker has been strong against left-handed batters over the last two seasons. Bryce Harper isn’t just a left-handed batter, he’s the left-handed batter. Harper has two home runs and two doubles in his 20 at-bats against Walker. Against right-handed pitching, Harper has a .430 wOBA, .327 ISO, 177 wRC+ and 43% hard contact rate.
Other Options — Mookie Betts ($)
Value
Jose Siri, Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners ($2,900) — The power is absent, but Siri makes up for it with stolen bases — he has a stolen base in three of the last four games. Seattle has allowed 29 stolen bases this season (fourth worst). Batting near the bottom of the order limits his at-bats, but the Astros are on the road, so Houston will hit in the ninth. Also, the bottom of the order spot increases his run scoring chances when the top comes around to bat. He has a .355 wOBA in matchups with right-handed pitchers and while Logan Gilbert has been unhittable for left-handed batters, he has struggled some with right-handed batters.
Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($3,500) — One of the tried and true strategies for finding value is selecting hot bats. Over the last week, Smith has a top-5 wOBA (.589). He’s hit three home runs and has a 20% BB rate. Arizona’s beat reporter, Nick Piecoro, reported that Smith has added a small stride to his swing mechanics. After a disappointing rookie season and weak April, Smith may have found something. Last season, his average launch angle was nine-degrees. Since May 9, his average launch angle is 13.8-degrees.
Other Options — David Peralta ($3,900)
TEAMS TO STACK
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays — The Angels are one of the best offenses in baseball, so stacking them on Saturday night is not a novel idea. There are teams with better splits on the slate, but they’re in tougher matchups. Play Trout, obviously. Shohei Ohtani ($5,600) — if healthy — could go low owned. The lefty-lefty matchup isn’t appealing to most, but Southpaw Yusei Kikuchi ($) has reverse splits this season — .267 ISO, 44% hard contact rate, 1.9 HR/9 and a 14% K Rate against left-handed batters. Jared Walsh ($4,100) is starting to find his power and Luis Rengifo ($2,800) is a cheap option that allows this stack to fit in the best pitchers.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — The Dodgers are the best offense in baseball, and their splits are the best on the slate. Merrill Kelly isn’t a push over, but he’s also not a world beater. If the Dodgers do not get to Kelly, then they get to face the worst bullpen in baseball (4.58 xFIP). This is not a new phenomenon. The Diamondbacks had the worst bullpen in 2021. All of the usual suspects are in play for a Dodgers stack. Outside of the Dodgers that are hitting well in 2022, Justin Turner ($4,900) and Will Smith ($5,000) may be turning a corner. Turner has a 45% hard contact rate over the last week and Smith has a 40% hard contact rate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.