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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Celtics vs. Heat Showdown on May 29

Stan Son gives his top picks for Sunday’s Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Celtics and Heat.

NBA: Playoffs-Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

The 2021-22 NBA playoffs have been fraught with blowouts, but Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a competitive affair that has brought a Game 7, the greatest thing in sports since the incorporation of the shot clock. The Boston Celtics look to bounce back against the Miami Heat in Miami for the right to take on the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Celtics favored by 2.5 points, with the total at 197.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for Showdown contests on DraftKings.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Game 7 Special [$150K to 1st] (BOS vs MIA)


Captain’s Picks

Jayson Tatum ($16,500) - Tatum has produced at least 50 DKFP in each of the last three games. In the playoffs, he’s gone over 50 DKFP in 10-of-17 games with two over 60. He has played 45 and 44 minutes in the last two games and a similar workload is likely in Game 7. The usage rate was only 22.5% last game yet he scored 30 points on a playoff-low 12 field goal attempts. In five prior losses in these playoffs, Tatum has responded with 29, 30, 46, 27 and 31 points. The usage rate was at least 30% in four of those games with two games above 40%.

Derrick White ($9,300) - White played 29 minutes in Game 1 but only produced 10 DKFP. He then missed Game 2 due to the birth of his child then played 14 minutes in Game 3, contributing eight DKFP. Then Smart sprained his ankle and White replaced him in the starting lineup and played 41 minutes, producing 39 DKFP. The good times have continued even with Smart back in the lineup, as White has played 29 and 33 minutes, finishing with 27.3 and 43.3 DKFP. The usage rate has been 21.7%, 19.4% and 22.2% over the last three games. He has dished out at least five assists in each contest and stuffed the stat sheet with defensive stats. He has a block in each of the last five games and has racked up three, two and three steals in the last three contests. Another ceiling game of 40 DKFP is unlikely, but if he can accomplish the feat again, that could vault teams with him in the CPT slot up the leaderboard as the ownership should be muted compared to the other options. His price allows flexibility in roster construction to fit more high-priced players.

FLEX Plays

Jimmy Butler ($10,800) - Butler is coming off an 81.8-DKFP performance in Game 6. I faded him for Game 6 because he didn’t look healthy in the prior two games. He sure looked fine on Friday en route to 47 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, four steals and one block. The usage rate spiked up to 32.7% after being in the 20% range the prior three games. He shot 16-for-29 from the field with 4-for-8 from downtown. There is going to be regression on both fronts. For perspective, he attempted over five three-pointers in only five games prior and he converted just 23% of them on the season. He attempted at least 20 field goal attempts in 12 prior games this season. That said, he’s an integral part of the Heat offense and contributes in every statistical category. The usage rate should be high in an elimination game.

PJ Tucker ($5,600) - Tucker is a low-usage player, so points will rarely be voluminous. He does get his opportunities with the corner-3 and floaters in the lane when closeouts are too aggressive. Where Tucker makes his hay is in the hustle stats: rebounds and steals. He’s produced 23.3 an 26.3 DKFP in the last two games and has 30-DKFP upside if things break right. Just know that the floor is single-digit DKFP. That said, he will likely play over 30 minutes.

Value

Caleb Martin ($1,800) - Martin has received at least 10 minutes in every game this series with a high of 25. He only went for 7.8 DKFP last game, but had contributed double-digit DKFP in the prior four games with a high of 22. The allure of Martin is that when he’s on the floor, he’s not shy about jacking up shots. The usage rate has been at least 17% in the last five games with two contests over 20%.

Fades

Bam Adebayo ($8,400) - Adebayo went for 63.5 DKFP in Game 3 but that was an outlier game as Butler only played a half and Robert Williams was out. He has produced fewer than 25 DKFP in four of the other five games with two below 20. The usage rate has been below 20% in every game but Game 3. He is primarily a screener and dribble-handoff guy. Adebayo is most effective grabbing a rebound and driving to the rim off semi-transition but Boston has neutralized him in that area.

The Outcome

So many of the stats lead me towards the Celtics. Since the All-Star break, they have lost consecutive games only once. Boston had the fifth-best road record this season and were 20-4 as the away favorite. They are 11-1 ATS in the last 12 road games and both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown had better stats on the road. That said, I’m taking the Heat here. They are 4-2 as home underdogs on the season and the home team is 105-28 in Game 7s.

Final score: Heat 99, Celtics 96

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $700K Game 7 Special [$150K to 1st] (BOS vs MIA)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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