Tuesday is typically a big day for baseball, and this Tuesday is no exception. There are 16 games to choose from, including a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Under 7.5 runs (-105)
Tuesday’s matchup between the White Sox and Blue Jays features one of the best pitching showdowns of the entire year. Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the Blue Jays, and he’s been phenomenal in his first year with the squad. He’s pitched to a 2.25 ERA through his first nine outings, and that undersells just how dominant he’s been. Batters have managed a batting average on balls in play of .344, which is unusually high for a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber. Gausman has posted an unreal 1.31 FIP, so he could be even better with some better luck on balls in play.
Lucas Giolito will take the hill for the White Sox. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as Gausman this season, but he’s still been extremely good. He’s racked up a career-best 12.19 strikeouts per nine innings while pitching to a 2.63 ERA.
Overall, both of these pitchers are in contention for the AL Cy Young award, so this is a must-see matchup for fans of great pitching.
Additionally, neither of these offenses stand out as elite units at the moment. Both lineups have plenty of potential, but both squads rank in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays rank 17th in that department, while the White Sox rank merely 28th. Both teams have also struggled to put runs on the board, ranking 23rd and 27th in runs per game.
Add it all up, and I have no problem taking the under on 7.5 runs. It would not shock me if this number decreases to 7.0 over the course of the day, so I’m grabbing the 7.5 while I can.
Diamondbacks ML (+140)
I don’t think anyone expected the Diamondbacks to have a better record than the Braves at this point in the season. The defending champs are just 23-26, while the Diamondbacks have won 24 of their first 50 games.
The Braves lost Freddie Freeman in the offseason, but they’ve gotten decent production from replacement Matt Olson. Their biggest problem has been their inability to put the ball in play. They lead the league in strikeout rate by an alarming degree, whiffing in 26.6% of their at bats. That shouldn’t be a huge issue today against Humberto Castellanos, who has managed just 6.13 strikeouts per nine innings.
However, the Braves have also struggled on the mound. Tuesday’s starter, Charlie Morton, has been one of their worst starters this season, pitching to a 5.28 ERA through his first nine outings. He’s struggled in particular with his control, walking more than four batters per nine innings.
The Diamondbacks offense isn’t an intimidating unit, but they are a patient one. They own the fifth-lowest chase rate this season, so they will take their walks if that’s what the pitcher is giving them. They should be able to get some runners on base vs. Morton, which gives them plenty of appeal as underdogs.
The Diamondbacks are also shaping up as a preferred target for the sharps. They’ve received just 28% of the moneyline wagers, but they’ve resulted in 42% of the dollars.
Under 9.0 runs (-115)
The total on this game sits at 9.0 runs, which is not surprising given the quality of offenses involved. These teams have had no problems piling up runs, with both ranking in the top eight in runs per game.
However, both teams will have quality starters on the mound on Tuesday. The Yankees will start left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who has pitched to a 3.30 ERA and a 3.72 FIP over nine appearances. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start this season, and he’s limited his opponent to two runs or fewer seven times. The Angels have been a bit more mediocre against southpaws than traditional starters this season, ranking eighth in wRC+ in that split.
The Angels will start Noah Syndergaard, and while he is not quite “Thor” anymore, he’s still a capable pitcher. His average fastball velocity and strikeouts are way down, but he’s still managed a 3.08 ERA through seven starts. The Yankees offense is also a bit less formidable with Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson sidelined, so he should be able to keep them at bay.
Overall, this contest seems like a great opportunity for an under.
Padres ML (+110)
The Cardinals offense has been an enigma for most of the year. They continue to score runs — they rank sixth in runs per game — despite some of the worst Statcast data in the league. They own the third-lowest hard-hit rate and the highest average launch angle, resulting in a ton of lazy fly balls. Guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and the newly promoted Nolan Gorman have been outstanding, but the rest of this lineup is pretty uninspiring.
With that in mind, I’ll roll the dice on Blake Snell as an underdog. Snell has been limited to just nine innings across two starts, but he’s racked up an elite 12 strikeouts over that timeframe. I’m happy to back him against a Cardinals offense that seems prime for regression.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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