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MLB Picks for May 4: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for May 4.

MLB: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

MLB has an absolutely wild Wednesday schedule this week. We’ll keep things simple by focusing on the evening games on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates. (And May the 4th be with you.)

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles

Twins FFI over 1.5 runs -135

The Red Sox didn’t exactly mash in their recent series in Baltimore, and they haven’t made much solid contact against right-handed pitching this season. However, they still covered this number against the Baltimore starter the Twins will see Wednesday, Kyle Bradish. The rookie right-hander gave up two runs over five innings in his MLB debut, so it was still a solid outing. But, the Red Sox are far from the toughest lineup for right-handed pitchers to navigate, despite some of Boston’s big names. The Twins have hit right-handed pitching much better, but they’re still middling in terms of OPS and wOBA. However, what’s more important is Minnesota has the lowest soft-contact rate against right-handed pitchers and one of the six best hard-contact rates against righties.

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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases +130

If there’s a no-brainer pick on Wednesday, it’s this one. Judge is on fire right now, logging two-plus total bases in eight of his last 10. During this stretch, he’s 15-for-42 (.357) with two doubles and a ridiculous eight home runs.

More importantly, he’s pulverizing left-handed pitching, and that’s what he’ll see to start Wednesday’s contest. Judge has an absurd 56.3% hard-contact rate to go with a .560 ISO and .501 wOBA against left-handers. What might be more outrageous is the fact he only has a .250 BABIP against lefties, indicating there’s only more to come.

Now, Judge is only 2-for-9 in his career against Toronto’s Wednesday starter, Yusei Kikuchi. But, both of those hits were home runs. Kikuchi hasn’t given up a ton of hard contact to right-handed hitters this season, but he’s also not generating a lot of soft contact either. Righties have, however, put together a .441 wOBA and 1.005 OPS against the left-hander to this point in the season, so it’s not like Kikuchi has handled them well.

Also, if you’re looking to back someone to go yard, Judge is at +370 is definitely the way to go, too.

SG Parlay: George Springer over 1.5 total bases and Blue Jays over 0.5 runs +140

You can’t get Springer at 1.5 total bases straight up on DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday. Whenever that’s happened with hitters I like on a given day this season, this is how I’ve worked around it.

Like Judge, Springer is mashing left-handed pitching. He has a 55.6% hard-contact to go with his .385 ISO and .539 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Nestor Cortes is a tough matchup, but Springer doubled off him on April 12 — he also made solid contact in his second at-bat against the New York lefty that game, even though the result was an out. Also, despite his limited exposure to Cortes, Toronto’s leadoff man has homered off the lefty before, too. (He’s also +370 to go deep on Wednesday.)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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