Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates — things can always change with lineup moves leading up to tipoff. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
MIA -3 (-110) — If Joel Embiid is officially ruled out
We saw both the Sixers and Heat favored by a point in this game, then got word that Joel Embiid was listed as out. That news was then followed up with reports that while Embiid was listed as out, there’s a chance his status could upgrade before tip on Friday. Super helpful, I know.
However, the line was obviously adjusted for Embiid to be more likely to sit, with Miami now a three-point road favorite in a desperation spot for Philly. But if Embiid isn’t taking the floor for this game, I’ll continue to pile on Miami, as I have in the first two games.
After a back-and-forth first half to Game 1, Miami has completely dominated the series. James Harden isn’t the MVP-level player of a couple years ago, and on top of that, the Heat have been limiting him with a slew of capable defenders that’s headlined by P.J. Tucker.
Miami won the two games on their home floor by 16 and 14 points. And while this is a desperation spot for Philly, I expect this to be similar to Game 1 — 76ers hang in there for the first half, then the Heat pull away. The Heat blanketed Harden in Game 2, and allowed Tyrese Maxey to go off for 34 points, and still didn’t have a chance at getting the win. Miami is just too deep and too disciplined (along with a massive coaching advantage) to blow these opportunities if Embiid does in fact sit again.
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
DAL 1H -1.5 (-115)
The Suns head to Dallas with a 2-0 series lead, but with two completely different wins. In Game 1 they came out and blasted the Mavs from the start, and while Luka Doncic finished with a 45-12-8 line, the damage was done in the first half, and the game was never in doubt (although Dallas nearly got a backdoor cover).
In Game 2, the Mavs came out ready to go. They got a huge first half from Doncic, but the Suns were able to break away in the second half — primarily thanks to Chris Paul dominating the first six minutes of the fourth quarter. I think this is closer to the style game we’re going to see in this series.
Phoenix had no problem letting Luka go nuts in the first half and get his, but essentially tired him out for the second half. Meanwhile, CP was a distributor early and then took over the game late when he needed to.
On top of that game script, this is just a got to have it spot for Dallas. Heading home down 0-2 in a series, we have to expect them to show up early. The line tells us everything we need to know here — Mavs are +1 for the game, yet laying -1.5 for the half.
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