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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for May 7

Zach Thompson gives his top studs and value plays for Saturday’s fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings.

MLB: Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

There’s baseball all day long this Saturday with multiple teams playing doubleheaders and a total of 18 games on the schedule. The final eight of those contests make up the featured evening slate, which gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET when the Royals and Orioles are scheduled to play in Baltimore. The weather in Baltimore and Chicago doesn’t look great, so keep an eye on those trouble spots and adjust as needed. The 16 teams in action provide plenty of solid options to consider, and I’ve selected my top options below.

You can keep up with all the news and updates throughout the day in the DK Live app and on Twitter, where you can follow DK Live at the handle @dklive. I’m also available on Twitter at @ZT_Sports, and I’ll be happy to answer any questions about these picks, offer alternatives and find more bargain-specific content all season long.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]


For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.


PITCHER

Stud

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves ($10,300) – Burnes has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the early part of the season and seems set on defending his Cy Young Award from last season. He has over 28 DKFP in four straight starts since struggling a little bit on Opening Day and has dropped his ERA to 1.93 to go with a 2.88 FIP and an 11.85 K/9 rate. He has worked at least 6 23 in each of his past four starts fairly economically, averaging just 101.75 pitches over those four games, and he has racked up double-digit strikeouts in each of his past three outings. The Braves are the defending World Series champs but have started the season slowly, hitting just .225 as a team over their first 28 games. Atlanta has really been struggling over the past week, hitting just .193 as a team with only 24 runs in seven games prior to Friday’s action.

Other Options – Pablo López ($10,000), Drew Rasmussen ($8,700)

Value

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels ($7,400) – Gray was acquired by the Nats as a key piece in the trade that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner ($5,400) to the Dodgers last season at the trade deadline. The 24-year-old righty has looked sharp in his first full season in the Majors so far, going 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 3.94 FIP. He has also posted an impressive 10.73 K/9 with 31 strikeouts in 26 innings. He has over 18 DKFP in each of his four most recent starts and has allowed one run or less in three of those four outings. In his last outing, he allowed just one hit over six shutout innings on the road against the Giants. He’ll look to keep the good West Coats vibes flowing in this matchup with the Angels.

Other Options – Steven Matz ($8,300), Michael Lorenzen ($7,200)


INFIELD

Stud

Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins ($5,600) – Machado has been living up to his mega-contract and single-handedly carrying the Padres’ offense while shouldering more workload in the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. (wrist). Coming into play on Friday, Machado had seven home runs over his first 26 games with a .283 ISO and .475 wOBA. He has been absolutely locked in with four of those home runs in his past nine games, during which time he has gone 16-for-37 (.432) with a .549 wOBA and a 53.1% hard-hit rate. He doesn’t get a great matchup against Pablo López ($10,000), who has been good this season, but he has been hot enough to overcome any matchup he has seen lately.

Stud

Josh Bell, Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels ($4,900) – Bell’s power numbers are actually down a little bit to start the year, but he has been extremely productive in the middle of Washington’s order during his second season with the Nats. Over his first 26 games coming into Friday, he was hitting .387 after not posting a batting average over .280 in any of his six previous MLB seasons. He has three homers and a .434 wOBA along with a 41.3% hard-hit rate. As has been the case throughout his career, the switch-hitting Bell has specifically mashed righties, hitting .393 with a .485 wOBA when batting from the left side. He will be on that side of the split against Michael Lorenzen ($7,200) and makes a lot of sense as a play under $5K at 1B.

Other Options – C.J. Cron ($5,500), Willy Adames ($5,000)

Value

Harold Ramírez, Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners ($3,300) – The Rays have been getting more at-bats for Ramírez, especially against lefties like Marco Gonzales ($6,800). I love the matchup (more details below), and Ramírez has been rolling as of late. Coming into Friday, he had gone 8-for-21 (.381) in his previous eight games with a double, four runs scored and a stolen base. He had 15 DKFP on Thursday against the M’s including that stolen base. He has gone 6-for-16 (.375) against southpaws with a .448 wOBA on the season after hitting lefties at a .288 clip last season with a .334 wOBA during his one-year tenure in Cleveland.

Value

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles ($3,200) – After going through some growing pains early in the year, Witt has found a nice groove. He entered the year as the top prospect in all of baseball but struggled until he was moved down in the order on April 21. Since then, he has gone 14-for-44 (.318) with three doubles, three stolen bases and a home run to produce a .364 wOBA on a 43.2% hard-hit rate. Witt had an 11-game hitting streak snapped on Thursday but should be poised to get going again in a good matchup with Jordan Lyles ($5,000), who tends to be prone to giving up home runs.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s Royals-Orioles game has been postponed due to inclement weather.

Other Options – Dansby Swanson ($3,100), Jason Vosler ($2,500)


OUTFIELD

Stud

Juan Soto, Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Angels ($5,200) – Soto and Bell (discussed above) are a nice mini-stack to consider against righties, especially ones like Lorenzen who have issues against left-handed hitters. Lorenzen has given up two home runs on the season, both to lefties, who have posted a .424 wOBA against him, compared to just a .184 wOBA for righties. Soto has been heating up lately, averaging 12.2 DKFP per game over his previous nine contests coming into Friday night’s matchup. He went 11-for-34 (.324) over that stretch with three homers, a .324 ISO and a .469 wOBA. He did a lot of that damage on this current road trip in San Francisco and Colorado and should be able to continue crushing in this contest as well.

Stud

Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals ($4,100) – Mullins is another left-handed hitter who has found his stride lately, and he’s a mid-range option I like a lot atop the Baltimore lineup for this matchup with the Royals. He homered in each of his two most recent games and has hit safely in six straight, going 10-for-26 (.385) with a .510 wOBA over that short span. He also has three stolen bases on the season helping him to average a 10.4 DKFP per game over his past 10 games. He can produce multiple ways and should be a strong option if the weather cooperates and the game is played as scheduled.

Other Options – Mookie Betts ($5,900), Taylor Ward ($5,800)

Value

Manuel Margot, Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners ($2,900) – Margot has been one of the Rays’ most consistent hitters this season, especially against lefties. He hit .303 with a .330 wOBA in his 21 games coming into Friday and has hit an impressive .421 against lefties like Gonzales with a .426 wOBA. Margot hasn’t homered yet this year, and the power outage may be why his price is so low, but he still has a 40.6% hard-hit rate on the year, so he’s driving the ball well even though it hasn’t left the yard for him yet. He has gone 18-for-58 (.310) over his past 16 games, highlighted by five multi-hit performances, two stolen bases and nine RBI. He can provide both power and speed in his favorable matchup discussed below.

Value

Juan Yepez, St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants ($2,200) – Ever so slowly, Yepez’s salary is starting to creep up after he made his debut on Wednesday with it at the minimum salary of $2K. He had 12 DKFP with a pair of doubles in his debut and two more hits and 8.0 DKFP on Thursday. He has hit fifth in all three of his games since being called up and seems to be set for a regularly involved role. Before being called up from the Memphis Redbirds, he hit exactly .300 with 11 homers and 28 RBI. His power potential and solid plate approach give him a very high ceiling at this very low salary.

Other Options – Julio Rodríguez ($3,700), Edward Olivares ($2,600)


TEAMS TO STACK

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners – The Rays are in Seattle taking on the Mariners and will go against soft-tossing lefty Marco Gonzales ($6,800). Gonzales had to leave one start this season after being struck by a line drive, but he has surrendered at least six hits and at least three runs in three of his four other outings. In his 20 innings, he has allowed 17 runs and has a 6.45 FIP and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against. Tampa’s regular lineup does have some lefty bats to avoid, but it also has some hitters who feast on southpaws. Yandy Diaz ($4,300), Wander Franco ($5,100), Manuel Margot (discussed above) and Randy Arozarena ($3,900) are productive options that usually hit in the top of Tampa’s lineup vs. lefties, be sure not to miss Harold Ramírez (discussed above) and even Mike Zunino ($3,600), who can be solid bargain parts of the stack against Gonzales.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals – As an off-the-radar cheap stack to consider, the lowly Orioles have a lot to offer if the weather cooperates. Baltimore has won four of their past six games, totaling 25 runs in those four wins. Over the last week (six games), they have hit a solid .260 as a team with eight home runs and 28 runs scored. Cedric Mullins (discussed above) is the only hitter priced over $3.5K and has been heating up in the leadoff spot, but Ryan Mountcastle ($3,300), Trey Mancini ($3,200) and Anthony Santander ($3,000) all seem a little underpriced, especially when you consider their matchup. Carlos Hernández ($5,400) is scheduled to start for Kansas City, and in his first four starts, he has surrendered 13 runs in 18 innings, including a pair of home runs. Both his home runs came against right-handed batters, who have a ridiculously good .440 wOBA against him. Lefties have also hit him well (.369 wOBA), and the matchup is just too good for these Orioles hitting high in the lineup to be priced so affordably.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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