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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets for Suns vs. Mavericks Showdown on May 8

Stan Son gives his top picks for Sunday’s Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Suns and Mavericks.

NBA: Playoffs-Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Phoenix Suns took care of the Dallas Mavericks in the first two games at home by 7 and 20 points. Dallas bounced back on their home court, as they put the clamps down on the Phoenix offense, holding them to a season-low 94 points. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Suns favored by 1.5 points, with the total at 215 for Game 4 in Dallas.

Let’s go over the fantasy outlook for the game for Showdown contests on DraftKings.


Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (PHX vs DAL)


Captain’s Picks

Luka Doncic ($18,900) - Doncic is the highest-priced player by a whopping $3,900 over the next player, so decisions will have to be made. It truly will come down to roster construction and projected ownership. That said, he has the highest floor/ceiling on the slate. He’s played 44, 36 and 34 minutes, hucking up 30, 22 and 25 shots. The usage rate has been 41.6% in this series. Doncic is a threat to triple-double on any given night and has 70-DKFP upside, something he did 12 times during the regular season, with two of those over 80. In the first three games against Phoenix, he’s put up 75, 52.75 and 59.75 DKFP. HalleLuka!

Chris Paul ($14,700) - Paul has 3, 8 and 4 assists in this series and is coming off a 26.25-DKFP performance. During the regular season, he dished out double-digit assists in all three games and went over 50 DKFP in two of those contests. I expect a bounce back game from all of the Suns players after a poor Game 3, especially from Paul. He’s totaled 15 assists in three games this series. I think he comes close to matching that number in Game 4 alone.

FLEX Plays

Jalen Brunson ($8,200) - Brunson has been the Robin to Luka’s Batman for much of the second-half of the season and throughout the playoffs. In Game 3, he shot 10-for-21 from the field for 28 points and 42.5 DKFP. The usage rate was 32% and 25% in the first two games. He’s racked up a steal in every game this series and will chip in some rebounds and assists. Now, he did shoot 25% and 37% from the field in the first two games, so the range of outcomes is wide. That said, he converted an impressive 49% of his attempts during the regular season and will get the requisite playing time and usage for the opportunity of a ceiling game.

Value

Maxi Kleber ($6,000) - Kleber is usually a big-man 3-and-D without the D on most nights type of player. That said, he did grab three rebounds, dish out four assists and block three shots in Game 3. That was good for 30.75 DKFP and was a ceiling outcome, not something that should be relied on most games. He did play 33 minutes, though, and received 25 and 28 minutes in the first two games. He will likely score somewhere in the low-20 DKFP range. He’s getting the minutes and the matchup is fantastic for him as the Suns boosted the FPPM to opposing centers by 17.02% over the league average, with a 27.53% boost in three-pointers.

Fades

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400) - Dinwiddie has been great for the Mavs....when Doncic has been off the court. With Luka back to full form, Dinwiddie has seen the playing time dissipate in each game, going from 30 to 28 and 24 minutes. The usage rate has been 12%, 21% and 13% in the three games this series. He’s put up 22.75, 15.75 and 19 DKFP. I’d much rather have Kleber who is $400 cheaper.

Deandre Ayton ($9,000) - The ceiling seems muted for Ayton this series. Outside of Game 2 in which he played only 18 minutes due to a blowout, Ayton has played 33 minutes in each of the other two games and gone for 37 and 31.25 DKFP. He’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in only one of those games and has racked up only one block without dishing out an assist all series. Paul is only $800 more expensive, while Booker is $1,000 higher. They have much higher ceilings. If the ownership is low, though, then I’d have no problem going here.

The Outcome

After more free-flowing games in Phoenix, Dallas really mucked up things in Game 3, and I expect more of the same for Game 4. Dallas did play at the slowest pace during the regular season and were seventh in defensive rating. That said, I expect the Suns to bounce back and take care of business. They were the best team during the regular season and led the league shooting 48.5% from the field. In Game 3, they shot 44.7% from the field, and Paul had an uncharacteristic seven turnovers. During the regular season, Paul had at least five turnovers in only four games, with one of those with six and another with seven.

Final score: Suns 102, Mavericks 99

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $120K Fadeaway [$30K to 1st] (PHX vs DAL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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