The AT&T Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch (par 72, 7,468 yards, Bentgrass greens). This course is located in McKinney, Texas, and last year’s edition of the Byron Nelson was TPC Craig Ranch’s debut at the PGA TOUR level. Winning by three shots at -25, Kyoung-Hoon Lee picked up the first PGA TOUR victory of his career at this par 72. As you can see from this very low winning number, TPC Craig Ranch isn’t difficult by any means for the professionals. In fact, of the 54 courses used by the PGA TOUR last season, TPC Craig Ranch was the second easiest in terms of scoring. What makes this venue so easy is the extremely wide fairways, thin rough and large Bentgrass greens, that aren’t overly fast. While these putting surfaces are bigger than the PGA TOUR average, accurate iron play is still the most important skill to contend at TPC Craig Ranch. During his breakthrough win last season, Lee ranked second in SG APP and fifth in GIR. The 30-year-old was also unsurprisingly productive on both the par 4s and 5s, ranking second and seventh in SG on these holes, respectively.
The AT&T Byron Nelson currently presents a rather strong field for a final event before a major. The event is headlined by the top ranked player in the world and 2022 Masters champ Scottie Scheffler. Nine of the top-20 ranked golfers in the world are listed in this week’s field, as of Monday afternoon.
Below are four of my favorite targets that cost less than $7.5K on DraftKings for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,400) – Bezuidenhout has been extremely consistent this season and is laughably underpriced for his chances of making the cut. In 14 starts, the South African has made 12 cuts and carded five top-25 finishes this season. Bezuidenhout has gained strokes from T2G at five of his last seven tournaments and has advanced through the cut in six of his eight starts at tracks that are home to Bentgrass greens since joining the PGA TOUR. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Bezuidenhout carries +500 odds to finish inside the top 10 this weekend, which are the same odds as Jhonattan Vegas, who costs $1,000 more.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,400) – Kitayama enters this week fresh off a T2 at the Mexico Open and a T15 at the Wells Fargo Championship. During this run, the 29-year-old has been a ball striking machine, averaging 9.1 strokes from T2G and 6.3 strokes on APP. Overall, when we compare this field’s last eight rounds, no player has gained more total strokes than Kitayama. Furthermore, these two impressive finishes have vaulted the former European Tour player up an eye popping 71 spots in the world golf rankings. Very few players head to TPC Craig Ranch playing better golf than Kitayama, and he is a steal at this cheap price point.
C.T. Pan ($7,300) – At this low price – which is a notable $800 decrease over the last two weeks – Pan is a must-have value play. This past week at the Wells Fargo Championship, the 30-year-old gained strokes in every major category, lifting him to a T15. Most notably, Pan gained a season-high seven strokes from T2G. The Taiwanese professional has collectively gained strokes from T2G and on APP in seven consecutive starts and holds a 12/16 record in terms of made cuts this season, with six top-30 finishes.
Patton Kizzire ($7,100) – At the AT&T Byron Nelson last season, Kizzire finished T3, while ranking fourth in both SG APP and SGP at TPC Craig Ranch. Including wins at the Sony Open and OHL Classic, Kizzire has had a knack for shining at birdie fests throughout his career, and the Auburn graduate returns to McKinney this week as the maker of seven of his last 10 cuts at standard stroke play events. Kizzire finished inside the top 30 four times during this stretch and ranks 19th in SG APP across his last 24 rounds. Kizzire brings terrific upside at an affordable cost and is never a popular name in GPPs.
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