We’re going hitter-heavy on Wednesday, but there was also on underdog play on DraftKings Sportsbook that caught my eye.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Two stats jump out when looking at Guerrero’s numbers against lefties since May 1: 42.3% hard-contact rate and .217 BABIP. That’s a lot of bad luck despite making a healthy amount of quality contact.
Bruce Zimmerman should help improve that BABIP on Wednesday. The last 95 right-handed hitters he’s faced have put together a 34.9% hard-contact rate and only a 39.8% ground-ball rate. During that span, Zimmermann has surrendered eight home runs, six doubles and a triple to right-handed bats.
The Cardinals are getting their stud back, but he’s only going to throw 60 pitches max. That’s only two more pitches than he threw in his last rehab start, but Jack Flaherty apparently wanted to face tougher competition rather than stretch himself out more.
Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been great against right-handed pitchers, and a lot has gone wrong for them vs. St. Louis this season. Miles Mikolas nearly no-hit them in the second half of Tuesday’s doubleheader, bringing Pittsburgh’s 2022 record vs. the Cardinals to 1-8 on the season. Everything is pointed toward the Cardinals, yet the Pirates -135 to cover on the run line.
Part of that has to do with Roansy Contreras. He is coming off a rough outing, but each of his last five starts have been close contests. The Pirates only won one of those games, but with the St. Louis bullpen rocking a 4.22 ERA in June and Flaherty making his first MLB start of the season, Pittsburgh is in position to steal one vs. the Cards.
Hitters playing at Colorado are generally the only ones who ever have total bases props set at 2.5. Very much understandable in Ramirez’s case, given what he does against left-handed pitching and what Gomber does against right-handed hitters.
Since the start of May, Ramirez has a 55.9% fly-ball rate and 32.4% hard-contact rate against lefties. That’s manifested into three doubles, a home run and a triple. Yet, Ramirez only has a .212 BABIP during that span.
The last 84 right-handed hitters Gomber has faced have accrued an above average line-drive rate and below average ground-ball rate. He also hasn’t generated much soft contact during that stretch, helping lead to four home runs, three triples and a double.
Taking Ramirez to go deep at +265 is very much in play if you’re looking for a home run dart.
Up until Tuesday night, Betts had been in a bit of a cold spell, registering just two singles over his previous seven games. He still only logged one hit in the series opener vs. the Dodgers, but it was a home run.
On Wednesday, he’ll get a shot at Reid Detmers, who has a 1.80 ERA vs. right-handed hitters in the starts following his no-hitter. However, he does have a 4.14 FIP against them during that stretch. Perhaps most important of all, the last 62 righties Detmers has faced have produced a 50% fly-ball rate. Betts has a 41.2% fly-ball rate against left-handed pitching this season and just a 36.8% ground-ball rate, which could spell trouble for Detmers.
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