I was skimming over last Thursday’s article to see how those bets did and I realized I didn’t end up watching any of the games. Instead, I gambled in a different way last week, heading to the ol’ local cinema to watch the new Jurassic World movie. Let’s just say Red Sox moneyline wasn’t the only bet I lost that night. But we’re not counting dino-flops in our season record of 30-23 on article plays. Thank goodness.
Here’s three more wagers I like on tonight’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Let’s review what we know. The Nationals are bad. In fact, Washington comes into tonight’s contest against Philadelphia having dropped four games in a row and in possession of the league’s worst run differential (-102). Not surprisingly, that’s translated into the Nationals also owning the league’s worst run line record at 25-40. Woof. Conversely, the Phillies are red-hot since a managerial switch, going 11-2 since the beginning of June.
A big part of Philadelphia’s success in 2022 has been Zack Wheeler. After a few poor outings to begin the season — and some injury concern in Spring Training — Wheeler’s been possibly the best arm in baseball dating back to late April. In his past eight starts, Wheeler has maintained a sterling 1.42 ERA, which is completely backed up by a 1.64 FIP. His 32.8% strikeout rate isn’t too shabby, either. Needless to say, he’s been much better than Patrick Corbin, who will oppose Wheeler on Thursday. Corbin’s 6.02 xERA is atrocious, and with the Phillies sitting fourth in MLB with a .337 wOBA against southpaws, I don’t expect things will be getting much brighter for the veteran LHP this evening.
This is an interesting one. Despite all his success this season, Perez is far from what anyone would consider a strikeout-oriented pitcher. In fact, Perez only has 60 strikeouts in 74.2 innings, his 20.0% strikeout rate sitting in just the 34th percentile of qualified arms in 2022. Heck, Perez’s whiff rate is even worse, ranking in the 20th percentile. Yet, at the end of the day, strikeout props are generally about innings volume, and with Perez consistently working deep into his starts, he’s managed to clear this number in six of his last seven outings. Why would an appearance against the lowly Tigers be any different?
Yes, Perez was torn apart in his most recent start by the White Sox, but it probably worth noting that Chicago owns the league’s best wOBA against LHPs at .362. Detroit? Well, it sits only above the Marlins at .286. The Tigers’ .091 ISO within the split is also the lowest mark in MLB. That means Perez will likely go at least six innings this evening, and in the nine outings he’s reached that threshold this season, he’s averaged 5.4 strikeouts. That might even be selling the potency of this matchup short, as Detroit is currently sporting the AL’s second-highest strikeout rate in June (25.9%). The Tigers love to swing and miss.
An incredible 63.3% of Tigers games have hit this under in 2022 — the second-highest rate of any team in MLB. The reason for that is two-fold: Detroit has statistically the worst offense in all of baseball and, surprisingly, it has an amazing bullpen. Seriously. The Tigers’ 3.39 bullpen FIP is only bested among American League squads by the Yankees and the Astros. Who saw that coming in April?
As mentioned above, I think Perez will shut down Detroit’s bats pretty easily on Thursday, making Beau Brieske the big question mark for this bet. It’s hard to find many positive things to say about the rookie’s performance at the big league level so far; however, he has managed to survive a nightmarish recent schedule. In fact, after tossing 5.2 scoreless innings against the surging Blue Jays on Saturday, Brieske now owns a respectable 3.77 xFIP dating back to May 24 — a stretch where he faced Toronto, New York and Minnesota twice. Texas isn’t in that class, with a modest 98 wRC+ so far in June.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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