Yesterday was a very good day to read my article. Not only was I charming and hilarious as always, but we went 3-0 on picks, bringing our overall record for the season to 33-23.
PHI -1.5 ✅️— Garion Thorne (@GarionThorne) June 17, 2022
Perez OV 4.5 strikeouts ✅️
TEX/DET UN 8.5 ✅️ pic.twitter.com/yuBrP7x938
Going 3-0 on a Thursday then bragging about it in Friday’s intro? How could this possibly backfire? Let’s find out as I break down a few more wagers I like on tonight’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
This is a really interesting prop for Montgomery, who has been amazing so far in 2022, yet hasn’t been racking up the strikeouts as in years past. Somehow, despite a season-high of just five strikeouts, the left-hander has cleared this number in six of his last 10 outings. The term “by the skin of his teeth” applies extremely well here. Still, it’s difficult to get too excited about a pitcher averaging fewer than 7.00 strikeouts per nine across a 66.2 inning sample. Even more so when that pitcher is left-handed and is facing the Blue Jays.
Toronto, as one would expect, has been crushing the rare opportunities it gets against southpaws. The Jays enter Friday’s matchup sitting second in baseball in wRC+ within the split (132), while the team’s .356 wOBA and .822 OPS are third-best in MLB. Also, though they have been hitting for an absurd amount of power in June, that production hasn’t come at the expense of overall contact. In fact, Toronto’s 16.7% strikeout rate for the past two weeks is the league’s second-lowest mark. With a bushel of RHBs and Montgomery only striking out 17.0% of the righties he’s faced this season, I don’t think these trends are in danger this evening.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox
Under 10 (-115)
This just seems really high, right? Am I crazy? No disrespect to either of these lineups — though the Cardinals have been at their best versus left-handed pitching — but Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have just been plain good so far in 2022. Both sport an ERA below 3.00 heading into tonight’s festivities, and while the advanced metrics aren’t quite as pristine, there really aren’t any major red flags between the two former teammates. Honestly, the only thing I can think of is Yadier Molina being placed on the IL this morning, if you’re someone who really swears by catcher ERA.
I guess Fenway Park can be a scary setting for an under, too, though that’s not been the case with Wacha on the mound. The right-hander has been incredible pitching at home, maintaining a 0.86 ERA and limiting opponents to a gross .155/.231/.239 slash line. As for Wainwright, the ageless wonder has been eviscerating opposing lineups since the beginning of May, registering an eye-popping 2.15 ERA across his past seven outings. Heck, both these squads even rank in the top-half of the league in bullpen ERA, I’m just not sure where these runs are coming from tonight.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
First 5: White Sox Over 1.5 Runs (-115)
For as good as Framber Valdez has been in 2022, he remains a left-handed pitcher with a high walk rate (9.1%). If the White Sox can’t score a couple runs off of that archetype, I’m not sure if there’s anything left to salvage here.
Alright, that’s a little extreme, especially with Chicago seemingly rejuvenated by a quick three-game sweep of the lowly Tigers. I guess it’s actually been more of a two-week rejuvenation. Across the past 14 days, the White Sox rank second in the league in average (.306), sixth in wOBA (.356) and sixth in wRC+ (136). For the season as a whole, they’ve been even better against specifically left-handed opponents, managing league-best marks in wOBA (.362) and wRC+ (141). If Jake Burger is back in the lineup tonight — he owns a .534 xwOBA against LHPs — I really like Chicago to get on the scoreboard early.
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