Monday features an eight-game MLB main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Diamondbacks ML (+145)
The Diamondbacks are moderate home underdogs Monday vs. the Padres. They have a tough matchup on paper against Yu Darvish, who has previously been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
However, Darvish is not nearly the same pitcher that he was in his prime. He’s 35 years old now, so it’s not surprising that he has started to show a bit of decline. He’s pitched to a 3.94 xERA, which puts him in just the 46th percentile among MLB pitchers.
Darvish’s strikeout numbers are also the worst of his career by a large margin. He’s racked up at least 10.08 strikeouts per nine innings in each of his previous nine seasons, but that figure is down to just 7.29 in 2022.
On the other side, the Diamondbacks will turn to an underrated starter in Zach Davies. He’s posted a 3.55 xERA through his 13 starts, which actually gives him a slight edge over Darvish. The Padres’ offense is also mediocre, ranking just 17th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. With Manny Machado questionable to suit up following an ankle sprain, they’re going to be even worse than usual. I’ll roll the dice on the Diamondbacks at +145.
Rays ML (+110)
Monday’s matchup between the Yankees and Rays features two of the best pitchers in baseball. The Yankees will turn to Gerrit Cole, and while he actually has the worst ERA among the Yankees’ starters, he’s finished in the top-five in Cy Young voting five times.
However, his numbers pale in comparison to Shane McClanahan’s this season. He’s pitched to a 1.84 ERA and a 2.48 xERA, the latter of which ranks second among qualified starters. He’s also striking out more than 12 batters per nine innings, which puts him in the 97th percentile. Overall, it’s not a stretch to say he’s been the best pitcher in baseball.
The Yankees’ offense will be a tough test for McClanahan, ranking first in basically every statistical metric. Still, it’s tough to pass him up as a home underdog.
Pirates ML (-115)
The Pirates are very rarely going to be favored, but this is a spot where they deserve to be. They’ll have JT Brubaker on the mound, who is arguably their best pitcher. He’s a quality strikeout arm, racking up 9.19 strikeouts per nine innings this season, and his 3.83 xERA is solid. The Cubs own the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, so Brubaker should find some success in this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Pirates' offense should be able to get to Caleb Kilian. He has some promise, entering the year as the Cubs’ No. 7 prospect, but he’s yet to translate that into success in the big leagues. He’s allowed eight earned runs in his nine MLB innings while racking up more walks than strikeouts.
The Pirates' offense should also get a boost from the inclusion of Oneil Cruz. The top prospect was just recently promoted to the major league roster, and he should help them immediately. He racked up nine homers and 11 steals in 55 games in Triple-A this season, and he’s homered once in his two career MLB contests.
The sharps are targeting the Pirates heavily on Monday, garnering 84% of the dollars on just 54% of the bets. This line should continue to move against the Pirates, so let’s lock in this number while we can.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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