We have another massive MLB slate at our disposal on Tuesday. There are 15 games to choose from, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
The Pick: Mets ML (+110)
The Mets and Astros will play a brief two-game series starting on Tuesday. Both teams are off to great starts this season, with the Mets leading the NL East and the Astros leading the AL West. Overall, they own the second and third-highest winning percentages in baseball, trailing only the Yankees.
The Astros are slight favorites in this matchup, but I would argue that the Mets have the advantage on the mound. They’ll turn to Trevor Williams, while the Astros will start Jose Urquidy.
Williams has alternated between the bullpen and the rotation this season, but he’s spent plenty of time as a starter in the past. His numbers in previous years with the Pirates aren’t very impressive, but he’s shown signs of improvement in 2022. His Statcast data is particularly strong, ranking in the 86th percentile for hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Urquidy has been hit incredibly hard this season. He ranks in the 11th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xERA, xwOBA, and barrel rate. His 4.99 ERA is poor, and his 6.16 xERA is one of the worst marks in the league for qualified starters.
The Mets have also done extremely well against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking second in wRC+. They should be able to get to Urquidy, making the +110 odds appealing.
The Pick: Under 9.0 (-110)
The Blue Jays and White Sox have both had disappointing offensive starts, but both teams are heating up. Both teams rank in the top five in wRC+ over the past 14 days, and both teams have plenty of offensive firepower. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the over currently sits at 9.0 runs.
However, both teams will have quality pitchers on the mound on Tuesday. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, and the White Sox will pitch Dylan Cease.
Gausman has pitched well in his first season with his new team, but he has been significantly unlucky. His ERA sits at 3.21, but his FIP is a sparkling 1.74. That’s the best mark in the league among qualified starters. Batters have posted an extremely high .369 batting average on balls in play, which should regress to the norm moving forward. Opposing batters managed just a .274 BABIP against Gausman last season, and his ERA should improve as his BABIP does.
Meanwhile, Cease provides an elite combination of Statcast data and strikeout upside. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for strikeout rate, racking up just under 13 strikeouts per nine innings. When batters do put the ball in play, they’ve managed a hard-hit rate of just 33.1%. That puts him in the 82nd percentile.
With these two pitchers on the mound, it’s reasonable to expect these offenses to slow down a bit. I’ll grab the under on nine runs.
The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+110)
The Diamondbacks let us down as underdogs on Monday, but I’m going right back to the well. They’ll have Zac Gallen on the mound, who has been easily their best starter this season. He owns a 2.91 ERA and a 3.33 xERA, and the Diamondbacks have won eight of his 12 starts. He hasn’t been quite as impressive recently, losing two of his past three starts, but he rebounded nicely with seven innings of two-run ball in his last outing.
He should be able to shut down a very mediocre Padres offense on Tuesday. They rank 15th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, but that oversells the quality of their current lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. remains sidelined, and Manny Machado will likely miss another contest due to an ankle injury.
The Padres will have a strong starter of their own on the mound in Sean Manaea, but he hasn’t been nearly as impressive as Gallen. His ERA sits at 3.95, and batters have made much better contact against him recently after a strong start to the season. The Diamondbacks are far from an offensive dynamo, but I’ll take my chances with Gallen in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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