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Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Orioles -1.5 +140
Tyler Wells isn’t the type of pitcher you expect much from in DFS, but he’s been a quality starting pitcher this season. The Orioles are one game under .500 in games he’s started. That’s a solid mark for a team that’s nine games under .500 overall. His 4.32 FIP indicates he’s not pitching as well as his 3.62 ERA shows, but everything gets better when you look beyond the first month of the season.
Wells wasn’t exactly great in April, and Baltimore lost each of his first five starts as a result. In his last eight starts, however, the Orioles are 6-2 — a time frame in which he’s posted a 3.21 ERA and 4.21 FIP. More importantly, Baltimore has won by two-plus runs in each of those six wins.
The Orioles are in a spot to do so again with Patrick Corbin on the mound for Washington. They rank among the top 10 in ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching this month. Baltimore also has a 45.4% hard-contact rate and 9.3% soft-contact rate against lefties in June. Corbin’s struggles are pretty well-documented, so we don’t need to dig into those. He should help a team that’s hitting lefties maintain that trend.
Tyler Wells under 5.5 hits allowed -120
Wells has gone over this mark once all season. Part of that might have to do with Baltimore managing his pitch count. At the same time, the right-hander has worked into the sixth inning four times without giving up more than five hits. The one outing he went over this mark came back on May 15.
The Nationals haven’t been tough on right-handed pitching this season, and June has not been an exception. They have the fourth-highest ground-ball rate against righties this month, which is part of why they rank among the bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching in June.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Adam Wainwright over 6.5 hits allowed +105
This is a high mark for a pitcher who has a 3.06 ERA and 3.41 FIP. But with Yadier Molina (knee) on the injured list, Wainwright isn’t guaranteed to be as effective as usual. Even then, the right-hander has put together those solid marks while giving up a lot of hits. He’s given up seven-plus in six of his 13 starts. Four of those starts have come on the road, which is where he finds himself on Wednesday. More importantly, four of the outings in which he’s allowed seven-plus have come in his last five starts.
Now, the Brewers haven’t been great against right-handed pitching of late. But this lineup is very familiar with Wainwright, and quite a few of them have good career numbers against him. Additionally, two of the starts in which he’s allowed seven-plus hits came vs. Milwaukee.
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