Tuesday is one of the best days to bet baseball. Why? Well, because it features a 15-game slate. That’s why. Let’s get you some plays to make for tonight, yeah?
When it comes to the Cardinals facing off against a lefty, I’m in. That’s what they’ll be seeing tonight, as the Marlins will start Braxton Garrett for the fifth time this season. The Cardinals come into this game sporting a league leading 142 wRC+ and a .369 wOBA against lefties, both of which are the best in the league. They don’t strikeout much and aren’t against drawing walks, as they rank near the bottom and top of the league in those respective categories. While the sample size for Garrett is small, he has allowed a ton of hard contact, doing so 31.1% of the time.
This Cardinals offense has been posting a lot of crooked numbers lately. Over their last 10 games, they’ve gone over 4.5 runs in six of them, including three straight. With Garrett not going deep into games, they’ll likely get a good crack at the Marlins bullpen, which has logged 23 2⁄3 innings over the past week, which is the 10th most over that span. The Cardinals have also been a high scoring offense at home this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game.
The Pick: Padres Moneyline (-110)
I think this a great line for the Padres, despite facing Zac Gallen. They just saw him his last time out and he tossed six innings, allowing two runs on five hits while striking out 11. Despite that, the D-Backs fell to the Padres by a score of 3-2. Even with how good Gallen has been this season, the D-Backs are just 8-5 in games he’s started. For someone who hasn’t allowed more than two runs in 11 of the 13 starts he’s made, they should be better.
On the other side, Sean Manaea will face this team for the third time in 2022. He’s been lights out in those games, allowing a total of two run on four hits while striking out 13 through 13 innings. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the D-Backs really struggle against left-handed pitching, combining for a team 90 wRC+ (27th), a .302 wOBA (26th), and 74 total runs scored (26th).
Even without Manny Machado in the mix, the Padres have still been able to churn out some wins, going 4-3 while averaging 3.8 runs per game. It’s not numbers that blow you away but three of those wins did come against this Diamondbacks team, where they swept them and averaged 5.6 runs, even without Machado. I’ll take the -110 while backing Manaea against a team that struggles against lefties.
Betting against Patrick Corbin in a variety of ways has become a hobby of mine. While I’m not thrilled about backing the Pirates, I still can’t get away from continuing my love for the hobby. Corbin has made 15 starts this season, 10 of them have featured him going over this 2.5 run total. In his lone start against the Pirates, he was able to stay under this total but did allow two through 5 1⁄3 innings.
The difference for me this time around has been the rate of home runs Corbin has allowed. When he first started in April, he was doing an excellent job at limiting the long ball. In fact, through his first seven starts, Corbin allowed a single home run. Impressive! Well, it’s gone backwards since then. Over his last eight starts, Corbin has allowed 12 home runs and is currently on a streak of three straight games with two allowed. Let’s break it down this way. Through his first seven starts, Corbin had a 0.3 HR/9. Since then, a 2.3 HR/9.
So yes, I think we go over 2.5 runs tonight.
I don’t have a ton of hard and fast rules as an MLB bettor, but fading Patrick Corbin as a favorite is one of them. The Nationals are slight home favorites over the Pirates on Tuesday with Corbin on the mound, and I simply can’t pass up that opportunity.
Corbin has been quite possibly the worst full-time starter in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 6.60 ERA and a 6.46 xERA, and both marks would be the worst in the league if he had enough innings to qualify. His average fastball velocity is down to just 91.8 miles per hour this season, and he ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in virtually every Statcast metric. Overall, there’s no reason to expect much improvement moving forward.
The Pirates are an excellent matchup on paper, but their offense has improved over the past few weeks. They’ve promoted Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz to the MLB roster, and both players have given the team solid production. Corbin has actually been worse against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters this season, so Suwinski and Cruz being left-handed could actually help them in this spot.
Let’s continue to pick on Corbin while we still can. He likely won’t be around for much longer.
The Braves and Phillies have both made up significant ground on the Mets in the NL East standings, setting up a big three-game series. Unfortunately, the Phillies were dealt a huge blow recently, with Bryce Harper forced to undergo surgery for a fractured left thumb. He’ll be sidelined for at least six weeks, leaving the Phillies without their best hitter.
However, they will have Zack Wheeler on the mound Tuesday, which gives them an edge. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, racking up a 2.77 ERA and a 10.37 K/9. His advanced metrics are also excellent, placing him squarely in the conversation for the NL Cy Young award.
The Braves will turn to Charlie Morton, who has struggled in his age 38 season. He’s still generating plenty of swings and misses, but batters have done damage when they’ve made contact. Overall, Morton owns a 4.84 ERA and a 4.17 xERA through his first 14 outings.
Considering the massive gulf in pitching talent, I will happily lay the -120 with the Phillies in this spot. The Braves are an excellent offensive team, but Wheeler is basically matchup-proof.
Michael Wacha has been arguably the luckiest pitcher in baseball to start the year. He’s pitched to a sparkling 2.34 ERA in 12 starts, despite a lackluster 6.61 K/9. He’s benefitted from an unsustainably low .227 batting average on balls in play, which is well below his career norm. Opposing batters have had a BABIP of at least .312 against Wacha in five of the past six years, so he’s a massive regression candidate moving forward. His 4.42 xERA is more than two full runs higher than his actual mark.
Still, it feels like that probable regression is fully baked into the current betting line. The Red Sox are +120 underdogs despite Wacha’s elite ERA.
The Red Sox have also been one of the hottest offensive teams in baseball of late. They’re taking on right-hander Ross Stripling on Tuesday, and the Red Sox are third in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 14 days. Stripling is a quality pitcher, but his 7.35 K/9 and his 3.48 xERA don’t need to be feared.
I view this contest essentially as a coin flip, and I’ll always take the +120 odds in a coin flip scenario.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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