The John Deere Classic doesn’t have the strongest field, but the winner gets 500 FedEx Cup points, an invite to the Masters Tournament (if he doesn’t have one already) and job security; this is still a significant week on the PGA TOUR.
Over the years, we’ve seen a barrage of birdies in Silvis, Ill., and this year should be no different. Five of the previous seven champions have won with scores over 20-under par. Birdie rate, fairways gained, proximity with scoring irons and putting are some key stats to take a look at this week. So, who’s winning this week? Well, we’ve seen multiple-time John Deere Classic winners like Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker as well as first-time winners like Dylan Frittelli (+6500), Brian Harman, Bryson DeChambeau and Sean O’Hair (+15000). This tournament is wide open.
The average winning odds of the previous six years is +8700, with Michael Kim being the longest at +30000 in 2018 and Jordan Spieth being the shortest at +400 in 2015.
For a full course preview, key statistics breakdown and additional players to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook, refer to the DraftKings Preview on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the bets we should be considering this week.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Adam Svensson to Win (+6500) | Top 5 (+1200) | Top 10 (+600)
Don’t look now, but Svensson may have learned how to putt, gaining in five straight events dating back to the AT&T Byron Nelson last month. His Sunday 71 last week wasn’t his best, but scores of 6-under and 4-under in Rounds 2 and 3 should give him confidence coming into a tournament where he could easily notch his first PGA TOUR win. Over the previous twelve rounds, Svensson ranks seventh in birdies or better gained, 16th in fairways gained and 35th in par 5 scoring.
Adam Schenk to Win (+6000) | Top 5 (+1000) | Top 10 (+500)
Like I mentioned in the preview article, Schenk’s game profiles well this week, especially with how accurate he is off the tee. A fourth (2021) and sixth (2019) have come off elite tee-to-green or putting weeks at TPC Deere Run; this is the week he puts it all together.
Tournament Winning Margin 1 Strokes Exactly +250 | A Playoff +300
Since 2000, the John Deere Classic has finished in a playoff 16 times. This season, 20% of tournaments have ended in a playoff and 35% within 1-shot. Combine these numbers with what we’ve seen at the John Deere Classic for the past two decades, and we could be looking at extra golf come Sunday evening.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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