MLB Picks for June 3: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Yesterday’s article was about the most prophetic thing I’ve ever written. Not only did we go 3-0 on the recommended plays, but I also suggested that my first 3-0 performance of 2022 was just around the corner. Obviously, this means that everything I type this morning will go horribly wrong, yet as it currently stands, I’m feeling pretty great.

We’re sitting at 27-17 for the season. Let’s try and keep things rolling heading into the weekend.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics

Nathan Eovaldi Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+120)

First and foremost, longevity has not been an issue for Eovaldi in 2022. The right-hander is averaging a respectable 15.5 pitches per inning thrown and has actually recorded at least 19 outs in five of his last seven starts — including his complete game against the Orioles on Saturday. The obvious way to stay economical as a pitcher? Don’t walk anybody. That’s sort of been Eovaldi’s calling card the past few seasons, as no qualified player has a lower walk rate since the beginning of 2020 than Boston’s ace (4.3%).

Also working in Eovaldi’s favor tonight is opponent. No one was expecting much from the Athletics’ bats this season and they are delivering on that underwhelming presumption. Oakland’s been particularly awful when facing right-handers. In fact, the Athletics come into Friday’s slate in possession of the league’s lowest marks in slugging percentage (.317), OPS (.588), wOBA (.264) and wRC+ (75) within the split. I’d look for Eovaldi to work his way through Oakland’s lineup with ease, pitching well into the seventh inning.

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Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays

Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)

I really wanted to find a way to exploit Chi Chi Gonzalez making an emergency spot start against a red-hot Blue Jays lineup, but understandably, most of the team props are pretty inflated. Gonzalez’s current reputation is just that poor. Though his 2021 statistics do have to be viewed through the lens of Coors Field, Gonzalez was absolutely rocked by right-handed hitters, conceding a .317 average and a .630 slugging percentage within the split. He also surrendered 2.23 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs. Yuck.

Well, bad news, Chi Chi. The Jays are the most right-handed team in baseball, leading all clubs with 1,227 right-on-right plate appearances in 2022. For context, no other American League squad even has 1,000 right-on-right PAs. More bad news: Teoscar Hernandez is starting to hit like Teoscar Hernandez again. The two-time Sliver Slugger award winner was ice cold coming off a three-week IL stint, but suddenly Hernandez is riding a seven-game hitting streak with five extra-base knocks in his past three games. Between Gonzalez and a Twins’ bullpen that’s down three arms — Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar and Trevor Megill can’t cross the border — expect big things from a rejuvenated Hernandez.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals

First 5: Royals Over 1.5 Runs (-145)

I can honestly say this is the first time this season I’ve ever seriously considered wagering on the Royals to score runs. Just doesn’t seem like the best way to make money, you know? Still, having said that, this prop is simply too low for a team going up against Jose Urquidy. While the right-hander has had his fair share of decent outings this season, few have come when he’s pitching on the road. In fact, opponents are slashing .368/.394/.624 against Urquidy away from Houston in 2022, which has translated into a 7.09 ERA and a 5.39 FIP within the split. Overall, Urquidy also sits in the bottom 3% of the league in opponent expected slugging percentage and in the bottom 6% of the league in xERA.

But can the Royals actually take advantage of those flaws? It’s a good question. Salvador Perez has looked terrible since returning from the IL; however, across the past 14 days, Kansas City owns the 13th-best wRC+ in baseball (107). It’s unclear if the likes of Andrew Benintendi, MJ Melendez and Hunter Dozier can stay hot, but with Bobby Witt Jr. starting to adjust to MLB pitching, things are certainly brighter for the Royals now than they seemed in April.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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