After a small slate on Monday, baseball is back in full swing on Tuesday. There are a whopping 16 games to choose from, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
White Sox ML (+105)
The Dodgers have been the best team in the National League this season, and they will travel to Chicago to start a series with the White Sox on Tuesday. They have the second-best team ERA in baseball – their mark of 2.91 trails only the Yankees – and most of that is due to their elite starting pitchers. They rank merely eighth in bullpen ERA, so their starters have carried a lot of the weight this season.
However, if they have a weak link in their rotation, it’s Mitch White. He’s racked up a quality 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings this season, but he still owns a pedestrian 4.79 ERA and 4.84 xERA. He’s spent time as a starter and a reliever this season, and his longest outing of the year was in his last appearance. He surrendered three runs over five innings against the Pirates, who are one of the worst hitting teams in the league.
On the other side, the White Sox will turn to an elite starting pitcher in Michael Kopech. The former top prospect has put things together in 2022, pitching to a 2.20 ERA through his first nine starts. He’s definitely benefitted from some good luck – namely a .189 batting average on balls in play – but his 3.48 xERA is still a strong mark.
The Dodgers have a clear edge offensively, but I’ll take my chances with Kopech and the White Sox as small home dogs.
Tigers ML (-125)
What does Tarik Skubal have to do to get some respect? Skubal has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, racking up a 2.15 ERA through his first 10 starts. He also boasts a 2.68 xERA, which puts him in the 88th percentile for all major league pitchers. He’s relied on a strong combination of a solid strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and a strong Statcast profile, so there’s no reason to expect much regression moving forward.
Why then is Skubal just a -125 favorite vs. the Pirates? He is on the road, but the Pirates’ offense ranks merely 22nd in wRC+ against southpaws. Pittsburgh is also one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in all of baseball, so the road start could actually benefit Skubal.
The Tigers’ offense has been even worse than the Pirates this season, but they should be able to score a few runs against Jose Quintana. If they can do that, expect Skubal to hold up his end of the bargain.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Tarik Skubal (weather) will start tonight’s game vs. the Pirates after initially being scratched due to weather concerns.
Orioles ML (-115)
There aren’t a ton of matchups where the Orioles would be deserving home favorites, but this is one of them. They’re taking on the Cubs, who will pitch right-handed Keegan Thompson on Tuesday. Thompson has solid numbers for the season, but he’s been far more effective as a reliever than a starter. He owns just a 4.22 FIP as a member of the rotation compared to a 2.98 mark out of the bullpen.
The Orioles will turn to Kyle Bradish, who has undoubtedly struggled to start his big-league career. He owns a 6.82 ERA and a 5.57 xERA through his first seven starts.
However, he entered the year as the Orioles’ No. 7 prospect per FanGraphs, and he has arm talent. He’s racked up 9.55 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s been victimized by some poor batted-ball data. His strikeout stuff should play vs. the Cubs, who have below-average strikeout numbers against right-handers.
The sharps have also expressed some interest in the Orioles, who have generated 47% of the dollars on just 35% of the bets.
Mets ML (+105)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s how I’m approaching the Mets on Tuesday. They’ve won three straight games – two against the Dodgers, one against the Padres – but they’re underdogs again tonight.
The starting pitchers in this matchup are relatively even. The Padres will hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who owns just a 3.96 xERA this season. His strikeout numbers are way down, so he’s not nearly as intimidating as he’s been in the past.
Taijuan Walker will start for the Mets, and while his 4.38 xERA is slightly worse than Darvish’s, his 2.88 ERA is significantly better. Walker has historically been able to outperform his xERA thanks to strong batted-ball data, so I’m calling this matchup a draw.
With that in mind, the offenses should dictate this matchup. While the Mets have been an elite offensive unit this season, ranking first in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, the Padres rank merely 27th. Until Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to the lineup, this is a unit we can continue to take advantage of.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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