As per usual on a Tuesday, we’ve got a huge slate of baseball action this evening. Technically speaking, every team is in action, with the Guardians and the Rangers even scheduled to play two. However, for our purposes, we’re looking a 12 games in the DraftKings featured contest.
I think that’s more than enough. Let’s break down some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
EDITOR’S NOTE: Tarik Skubal (weather) will start tonight’s game vs. the Pirates after initially being scratched due to weather concerns.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, $9,800 - After showing promising signs in 2021, Skubal has been a revelation in 2022. In fact, across the lefty’s past six starts, Skubal has maintained a microscopic 1.18 ERA to go along with an equally impressive 2.22 FIP. The 25-year-old, who had surrendered well-over 2.00 opponent home runs per nine coming into this season, has also only allowed two long balls in 58.2 innings. Add in a reduced walk rate, and it’s not difficult to piece together why Skubal is suddenly thriving like never before. Specific to this evening, with Pittsburgh leading the league in strikeout rate the past 14 days (25.5%), Skubal’s fantasy ceiling is as high as it’s ever been.
Value
Dakota Hudson, St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, $5,700 - There isn’t a lot of upside when you dip below the $8.5K mark on tonight’s pitching slate. However, for all his flaws, Hudson has been performing extremely well in recent weeks. Going back to April 23 — a span of eight starts for the right-hander — Hudson has registered a 2.22 ERA while limiting opponents to a very modest .297 slugging percentage. There’s almost no strikeout potential to speak of, so Hudson will have to keep suppressing runs at this elite level to be viable; yet that might not be all that daunting a task against the Rays. Over the past 14 days, Tampa Bay sits dead-last in batting average (.201) and second-worst in wOBA (.272).
INFIELD
Stud
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays, $5,600 - We’ve simply reached the point where it’s impossible to not use Goldschmidt when he’s facing a left-handed opponent. It’s only a sample size of 47 plate appearances, but in 2022, Goldschmidt is slashing .500/.574/.900 with a .613 wOBA within the split. That’s absolute insanity. With Jeffery Springs ($6,300) having served up four home runs in his past two outings, I have zero issue paying big money for Goldschmidt’s services on Tuesday.
Stud
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves vs. Oakland Athletics, $5,500 - Another case of an amazing right-handed bat going up against an underwhelming left-handed pitcher. Riley has been red-hot the past few weeks, and his success specifically against LHPs has been a big part of the run. For the season as a whole, Riley is hitting .339 with a 212 wRC+ within the split. His .458 xwOBA against southpaws is also one of the highest qualified marks in the league. Cole Irvin ($8,000) and his 5.06 xERA would be wise to tread carefully in this matchup.
Value
Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners, $2,700 - I’m not going to sit here and suggest that Gurriel is having a good season, though he has been hitting the ball harder so far in June. No, this is all about matchup. Chris Flexen ($6,200) has severely struggled over his last five starts, with right-handed opponents being the main issue. To wit, the last 81 RHBs Flexen has seen have combined to hit .351 with a .423 wOBA. Houston should have no problem racking up some runs on Tuesday and Gurriel has a chance to be in the middle of the action.
Value
Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, $2,300 - We’re dealing in small samples here, but Biggio’s looked alright since returning from Triple-A on May 26. In the 29 plate appearances he’s garnered since that point, the utility man is slashing .273/.448/.409 with a 158 wRC+. As per usual, Biggio’s biggest weakness has been strikeouts in 2022, but that shouldn’t be a factor in a matchup with Brad Keller ($6,600). Not only does Keller own the lowest strikeout rate of any qualified pitcher in baseball (13.1%), he’s also conceded a .424 wOBA to opposing LHBs across his last five starts.
OUTFIELD
Stud
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels, $5,400 - Martinez hits left-handed pitching. It’s really as simple as that. In 2022, the veteran has managed a .433 average within the split with a 215 wRC+, but if you need a larger sample, Martinez is hitting .308 with a 152 wRC+ against southpaws for his entire career. It also doesn’t hurt that Reid Detmers ($8,500) has pitched to a 6.19 ERA on the road so far this season.
Stud
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, $5,200 - The Jays are on fire at the moment, averaging an eye-popping 7.2 runs per contest across their past 12 games. As such, it shouldn’t come as a shock that Toronto is in possession of this slate’s second-highest implied total. It also shouldn’t come as a shock that Springer has been a massive part of this offensive charge. Over his last 16 starts, the former All-Star has posted a .300 ISO and a 166 wRC+. If he gets five plate appearances batting out of the leadoff spot, the sky is the limit against Keller and the Royals.
Value
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, $4,300 - Morel might not be a classic “value” option, but I need a reason to talk about the struggles of Kyle Bradish ($5,100). Right-handed batters are just battering the rookie, as Bradish has surrendered a .382/.456/.721 slash line within the split so far at the MLB level. Morel’s also been good in his own right, posting a 137 wRC+ in his first 92 plate appearances with the Cubs. Add in his status as the team’s entrenched leadoff man, and Morel’s an easy target on Tuesday.
Value
Michael Brantley, Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners, $3,900 - The perpetually under-appreciated Brantley is once again a viable value asset on tonight’s slate. Flexen has been rocked in his last five appearances, pitching to a 6.15 ERA over 26.1 innings. Meanwhile, even at 35-years-old, Brantley continues to swing a hot bat against RHPs, as he’s posted a 133 wRC+ within the split in 2022. Simply put: There’s always room for Brantley in a lineup.
TEAMS TO STACK
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals - The algorithm still hasn’t quite caught up to Toronto’s recent success. Over the past two weeks, the Jays lead baseball in every major offensive category, including ISO (.261), wOBA (.405) and wRC+ (168). Yet, bats like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,700), Alejandro Kirk ($4,600) and Teoscar Hernandez ($4,400) remain below $5K. Add in a pair of dirt cheap platoon bats in Raimel Tapia ($2,400) and the aforementioned Biggio, and you’ve got everything you need for a balanced stack.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]
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