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NASCAR Picks: NASCAR Cup Series Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Best Bets, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Pearce Dietrich gives his top NASCAR bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma, which starts on June 12 at 4 p.m. ET.

Will this be a predictable race at the technical road course in Sonoma? Or will NASCAR itch the yellow-flag scratch in Stage 3 and unleash chaos? As always, trust the spreadsheet but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma, which gets underway Sunday, June 12 at 4 p.m. ET.

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Toyota / Save Mart 350 Race Winner

William Byron +3000 to win

The Hendrick Chevys consistently win road course races. It’s one thing to be good consistently, but to win one road course race after another, is impressive. Not only are they winning at different road courses, they are winning at new road courses. They’re fast when the tracks are changed and the racing packages are changed. It’s not just wins, the top 5 consistently features Hendrick cars. Byron has yet to break through because he hasn’t put together a complete road course race. He knows what he is doing. His cars have been fast. Byron makes a mistake, the team plays the strategy wrong or he just gets beat by his teammates. If Ross Chastain can win a road course race, then so can Byron and these odds are way too long. Last season, NASCAR proved they were more than willing to get trigger happy with the caution flag in Stage 3 at Sonoma. This year’s COTA race again displayed NASCAR’s desire to create sports entertainment rather than sport with caution after caution. If road course racing is headed down the road of cautions and dumping your grandma to get the win, then the long shots are the play this weekend. Sonoma is a technical track that rewards the best drivers with the best engineers, but all of that goes out the window when spins are deemed automatic cautions. In defense of NASCAR, with the poorly designed underbody, spins completely ruin the ground effect aerodynamics and kill the cars warranting cautions.

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Driver Props

Matchups — Head 2 Head — A.J. Allmendinger vs Austin Cindric

A.J. Allmendinger -110

This matchup has been playing out for years in the Xfinity Series. Cindric won some and Allmendinger won some. It’s unclear who is a better driver, but Allmendinger gets the nod simply based on his experience. That experience is why Allmendinger is the pick at Sonoma. The Xfinity Series doesn’t race at Sonoma and neither did the Truck Series until this season. This is a technical track and there is a steep learning curve. There is no doubt that Cindric will figure it out eventually, but even if he has a great race, it’s unlikely that he beats Allmendinger right out of the gate.

Matchups — Head 2 Head — Chase Elliott vs Ross Chastain

Chase Elliott -135

This has been a great season for Ross Chastain. The had been a great season for Chastain. Last week, Chastain made enemies with Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin. Anyone that has followed Chastain over the years knows that he has a lot of enemies. He was one of the least respected drivers in the Xfinity and Truck Series. In his post race interview, Chastain was contrite but no one has forgotten his years of dirty racing. Everyone now has the green light to use this kid up. He showed weakness last week. Sonoma is the worst race track to follow Gateway. This is the Martinsville of road courses. It’s all about dive bombs, bumpers and using people up. Chastain is going to be a punching bag this weekend.

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Matchups — Head 2 Head — Chase Briscoe vs Christopher Bell

Christopher Bell -115

Both drivers are good young racers with Xfinity Road Course wins. Bell even has a Cup Series road course win. The deciding factor in this matchup is experience. Bell has more Cup Series reps than Briscoe. It’s not many, but it matters. Last season at Sonoma, Bell went a lap down with a mechanical issue, but he battled back and spent most of Stage 3 inside the top 10. He was as high as sixth place, running with his teammates and the Hendrick cars, but after a series of cautions, he was taken out on the final restart. Bell has top-5 potential. Briscoe only has top-5 potential if this race turns into restart madness — which certainly is a possibility.

Matchups — Head 2 Head — Denny Hamlin vs Ross Chastain

Denny Hamlin +105

Let everyone else chase Chastain because he won at COTA. There were seven cautions across thirty laps in Stage 3. The guy wrecked his old teammate to get that win. If by some miracle, Chastain is in contention at the end, he’ll be the first guy sent into the tire barrier. Not only is Chastain filled with guilt, but he’s looking over his shoulder. He’s John Wick. There might as well be a contract out on him. Hamlin had a top-5 car at Sonoma last season, but poor pit strategy buried him in traffic and he suffered damage in the pack.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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