Friday 11:15 a.m.: Biden has taken the lead in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Decision Desk HQ called PA for Biden but no major media outlets have yet with counting continuing. Betfair is sticking with Biden at -3333 while PredictIt has Biden up to 94 cents.
11:40 p.m.: The five un-called states continue counting with Biden gaining ground in Georgia and Pennsylvania while maintaining a lead in Arizona and Nevada. Betfair has the odds still listed, with Biden -3333 to win. PredictIt has Biden at 91 cents.
11 a.m.: Results have been trickling in for Georgia and Pennsylvania, but bigger results dumps are expected from Nevada and Arizona in the next hour. Betfair has Biden priced at -909. PredictIt has him priced at 86 cents out of $1.
Thursday 8:30 a.m.: We’re left with five states still uncalled: Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. More results are expected later in the morning, and for all but Arizona, they are expected to move in Biden’s favor. Arizona is expected to see Biden’s lead trim, but it may not be enough for Trump. Betfair has Biden priced at -714 to win, while Pinnacle has pulled the odds from the board.
3:35 p.m.: It’s a runaway for Joe Biden in the international markets, as he leads with between a -455 and -500 price in Europe. And the state of the race is certainly in his favor. Despite the claims of some Trump campaign staff, it’s likely the outstanding vote in the state won’t be enough to close any gap, and might actually widen it a bit.
Wisconsin has also been called by most media outlets, though the President has already indicated he’ll be asking for a recount. With him trailing by more than 20,000 votes, it would seem to be a massive lift for that to be successful.
The President already trails in Michigan, and is more than 37,000 votes behind as more of Wayne County (Detroit) is being counted. That should increase the lead even more for Biden, although there is a small protest taking place at the ballot counting facility right now that brings back memories of the “Brooks Brothers Riot” in South Florida in 2000.
If the three states above hold, Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States. If for some reason that doesn’t happen, he’ll need to win one of the states below.
Georgia should finish counting tonight, and it will be close with the President holding a 78,000 vote lead. The overwhelming majority of outstanding vote is from the Atlanta metro area and is early vote, two very good signs for the blue team. But whether it’s enough it’s just too soon to tell. The New York Times has it “Tilting Biden” at 64% presently.
In Pennsylvania they continue to count, but likely won’t be done until tomorrow. The President leads by about 350,000 votes, but what remains is just like Georgia: Early and mail-in ballots from overwhelmingly Democratic areas.
The better news is for Trump is in North Carolina, where the NYT has it 86% in his favor and he holds an 83,000 vote lead. Ballots can be received up until November 12 there, but at that point the Tar Heel State might not even matter.
12:44 p.m.: Pennsylvania has seen movement toward Biden with a 114k swing as more mail-in ballots are counted. Biden has improved to -588 to win the presidency at Betfair, and improved to -500 at Pinnacle.
10:40 a.m.: Counting continues, and while Biden is picking up ground in swing states, it will be a bit before we get another big wave of results. Biden remains at -500 to win the presidency at Betfair, but has improved to -450 at Pinnacle. The odds are coming together as results come in.
9:30 a.m.: Counting continues and Michigan has seen Biden/Harris pull ahead for the first time. Wayne County has a large chunk left, which could be enough to swing the state for them. Michigan pricing is at 94 cents at PredictIt.
Overall, Biden has improved to -500 to win the presidency at Betfair and -351 at Pinnacle. Pennsylvania still has a ways to go in ballot counting, but Michigan and Wisconsin are making rapid progress in counting.
7:40 a.m.: And with the addition of mail-in votes in Kenosha and Green Bay, it looks like we can almost call Wisconsin for Joe Biden.
He leads by almost 21,000 votes among over 3.2 million cast, or 0.7% of the vote. It’s moved the PredictIt number to 0.95, which means it’s considered basically a lock by the market.
Biden is now -400 to win the presidency at Betfair, and -303 at Pinnacle. And one of the more amazing comebacks in election night history is near complete.
6:50 a.m.: With a big chunk of early vote dumped in Michigan from Wayne County (Detroit), Joe Biden took Donald Trump’s raw vote lead from over 200,000 to just over 60,000. And the better news for Biden is there might be as many as another 350,000 votes in the county to be counted.
Biden is at -200 in most offshore markets to be the next President, and the PredictIt numbers are even stronger: It’s .86 in Wisconsin, Michigan at .77, .57 in Pennsylvania, and .59 in Georgia. Biden just needs to win two of the four to be the new leader of the free world.
6:05 a.m.: Here are some good tweets about the current state of play from two guys that are smarter than me:
Even if Trump pulls ahead in Nevada, I'd expect Biden to gain as mail ballots continue to arrive for the next week. https://t.co/IEhLt1DYJb— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 4, 2020
And I'd probably rate all four of AZ, NV, MI, and WI "likely D" at this point. https://t.co/ParkpQ1gkL— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 4, 2020
There's a LOT of vote left to count in MI and I haven't spent too much time looking at it myself, but it *seems* like it's mostly mail votes from blue counties which you'd think would be quite good for Biden.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
5:40 a.m.: With Biden leading Wisconsin by a smidge over 8,000 votes presently, he’s also taken the lead in the foreign betting markets. He’s at -125 at Betfair, and -133 at Pinnacle.
Oh, and PredictIt is back! It’s a shame they’ve shattered the trust of their users probably permanently, otherwise we’d point out they show Joe Biden at 0.59 to win the election, 0.81 to win Wisconsin, .70 to win Michigan, .48 to win Georgia, and .56 to win Pennsylvania.
Imagine being a site sole created for people to trade on political outcomes and elections, and crashing for 10 hours on Election Day. The anger of Twitter (and possibly regulators) will not be contained here.
For the first time, we can say with certainty that Joe Biden is favored in both the betting markets and to win the 2020 election.
5:10 a.m.: For the first time since about 830 p.m. when he fell behind in international markets, Joe Biden is in a dead heat with Donald Trump: Both are -110 at Betfair to win the election.
4:45 a.m.: Milwaukee is not fully reported, but with 89% reporting and a lot of city-based absentee votes still outstanding, Joe Biden takes the lead for the first time with 1,571,840 votes to 1,560,459 for Donald Trump. There’s still plenty of vote out, but if it’s early vote, it would seem to be in Biden’s favor.
And the markets are moving: Biden is down to +225 at Betfair.
4:35 a.m.: Did they delay the announcement in Milwaukee? Of course they did. Am I ever going to sleep again? Unlikely!
Here’s the state of the race: Joe Biden needs to win two of these five states: Michigan, North Carolina (86% towards Trump according to the New York Times), Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia (64% towards Biden according to the NYT).
We’ll be back if we ever get numbers from Milwaukee. Unlike the hit sitcom based there, these are not Happy Days for political/betting live bloggers.
3:55 a.m.: Trump is at 1.4 and 1.5 offshore, but let’s forget about the markets trying to make sense of the President at being less than 1-to-2 right now.
The voting data dump scheduled from Milwaukee at 4 a.m. will be a big moment here. How much can Biden cut into Trump’s lead via the mailed and absentee ballots in Wisconsin?
While the mail in Michigan won’t be as well-developed until after 9 a.m., we might get a much better idea if Joe Biden can cut into these E-Day votes that have already been counted in both states that have somewhat similar demographics.
3:25 a.m.: It’s time for everyone’s favorite game after 8.5 hours of election coverage: Explain this to me! Pick us up to series, Netflix. We’ll be a hit.
With Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia unaccounted for…
So why will betting on Joe Biden to be the 46th President of the United States get you $3.07 for every $1 you bet at Pinnacle, or $2.63 per $1 at Betfair?
The only explanation I can muster is that these markets and sportsbooks have so much liability on Trump they’d like to get more in balance by offering tremendous prices on Biden. The one thing markets hate is uncertainty, and this is clearly going to take a few days at best to settle.
My other theory? The Chewbacca Defense. But that’s all I got.
3:00 a.m.: As predicted mere minutes ago, Joe Biden will win Arizona according to the AP. Also let’s also give full credit to Fox News making the call quite awhile ago while their anchors and guests apparently filleted them for it (we only saw the weirdness on Twitter, but it reminded us of Karl Rove getting roasted in 2012 by his own network in one of the best moments in Fox News history).
The networks aren’t calling Nevada, but as a short-term Las Vegas Resident 10 years ago... I AM CALLING NEVADA. That’s right, me personally. Tweet it out, list me as first according to the networks, and please credit DK Nation. Trump simply didn’t get close enough in non-Clark County to make up what he’d need in overwhelmingly blue Southern Nevada.
2:30 a.m.: As Donald Trump gives a speech at the White House, the betting markets remain fully behind him even if his paths to victory seem to be narrowing slightly.
Here are the scenarios, brought to you by every NFL Pregame Show during Week 17:
Note: We’re assuming Arizona and Nevada are for Biden here, which seems pretty safe at this point.
- If Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan, he wins.
- If Biden wins Pennsylvania and either one of the states above, he wins.
- If he wins Georgia (and he has a 63% chance to do so according to the New York Times right now), that’s added insurance and one less state he’ll need between Wisconsin and Michigan. If he wins North Carolina (unlikely, the Times has it at 85% for Trump) he could lose either Wisconsin or Michigan and win.
There’s only three possibilities here:
- The markets think Biden loses Pennsylvania and either Michigan or Wisconsin.
- They believe something will happen in the courts to deny Joe Biden the Presidency.
- They’re just completely irrational.
And with the money on Trump still coming in at foreign markets, it’s for sure one of the three.
1:45 a.m.: I’ve been at this for a very long time today. So bear with me as I quote tweet myself instead of re-typing. Also follow me for the hottest takes on college football, college football betting, and where to get the best Cuban sandwich in Tampa.
*UPDATE: Deleted a previously incorrect tweet with an incorrect screengrab, here’s the right one:
*Deleted previous incorrect tweet due to wrong screengrab*— Collin Sherwin (@CollinSherwin) November 4, 2020
Right now you can buy Joe Biden at between +275 and +280 odds at European markets.
Below is the current @FiveThirtyEight projection.
"One of these things is not like the other…" pic.twitter.com/wNt8HgjQj0
1:30 a.m.: Here’s a big one: Biden wins Nebraska-2 and the one electoral vote that comes with it. Which means if he wins Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin he wins with exactly 270 votes. It also means he won’t need Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia.
It also means we won’t get a 269-269 tie no matter the outcome in Maine-2. And that sounds tremendous for our democracy.
But the markets aren’t believers, as they have moved towards Donald Trump again, perhaps based on the potential results in Michigan or Wisconsin. He’s at 1.58 at Pinnacle, and 1.67 at Betfair. That translates to a 60.18% probability at Pinnacle, and 56.83% at Betfair.
1:20 a.m.: One of Joe Biden’s “outs” in poker parlance is gone, as Texas has been called for Donald Trump by ABC News. We haven’t discussed it here because the underperformance by Biden in Harris County (Houston) and along the Rio Grande made it very unlikely it would turn blue.
The final margin will be interesting, particularly compared to the margin that Beto O’Rourke lost his Senate bid to Ted Cruz by in 2018.
1:05 a.m.: Hey fellow politically obsessed friends! Things are kind of copasetic right now... but it’s a good time to drag PredictIt right now. It’s after 1am and their website holding tens of millions of dollars of American wagerers money is still not working. It is absolutely insane, and how they handle this will be really interesting. Do they have some kind of insurance to make bettors whole?
You know why else it stinks? Because the minute-by-minute bar graphs from this evening would have been AMAZING content. I’m mad they cheated us out of the wagering chaos. It would have looked like the Falcons having a 28-3 lead on the Patriots on in-game wagering.
12:35 a.m.: The odds continue to head in Biden’s direction ever-so-slightly. A preliminary canvass of Pennsylvania seems to indicate that if all the mail-in votes are counted, Biden certainly will be competitive there. And if he wins PA, it’s probably over.
But we’re not going to know who the winner is tonight, likely tomorrow, and probably Thursday at the earliest.
The markets are factoring it in: Trump is down to 1.65 (57.81% probability) at Pinnacle, and 1.73 (54.83% probability) at Betfair, his worst numbers in hours. But to be sure, he’s still favored by the markets by a reasonable number.
12:05 a.m.: The markets are seeing two paths for Biden, and they’re adjusting accordingly.
Scenario 1: Biden wins Arizona (called by Fox for Biden), Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska-2. Exactly 270 electoral votes
Scenario 2: Biden wins Pennsylvania and enough of the above where it likely won’t matter, because he’s a decent-sized favorite in most of the above.
And that’s the two ways to give Joe Biden the White House.
The markets have moved, with Trump sitting at 1.56 at Pinnacle, and 1.57 at Betfair. PredictIt is still broken, with the operators of said site likely running from the angry Twitter mobs.
11:35 p.m.: Fox News just called Arizona for Joe Biden.
The nightmare scenario for the country and of screenwriter’s dreams is upon us. If both congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine should break for Biden, he’ll win the presidency.
If he wins one, it goes to the House of Representatives. And if they voted just as each member with one vote, Biden clearly wins. But they vote by the congressional delegation of each state... which means because of how the states are counted, Biden loses.
Now if Biden wins both Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District or Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, along with Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, he’ll be the winner even without Pennsylvania.
Trump is up to 1.55 on Pinnacle, and 1.67 on Betfair. We’ve got a race yet again.
11:05 p.m.: West coast polls closed leaving Hawaii and Alaska still open. The markets remain strongly in favor of Trump winning, with a $1 on Trump paying you only $1.395 at Pinnacle, and $1.33 at Betfair. Notable states still not called by all outlets include Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Texas, and Arizona.
10:50 p.m.: The markets are still strongly in favor of Trump winning, with a $1 on Trump paying you only $1.26 at Pinnacle, and $1.36 at Betfair.
If Biden shows enough strength in Arizona, it’ll be interesting to see if the odds shift back in his direction. Otherwise, we’re back to waiting for Pennsylvania once again.
10:40 p.m.: Sit down. Have a drink. And then read below.
Let’s give Biden Arizona, where he’s got a decent-sized lead right now. And despite the fact that PA is probably days from being called and there’s about zero usable data from there presently, let’s hypothetically give it to Trump.
If everything else breaks as expected... here’s your final electoral map.
I’m so sorry to do this to you.
10:15 p.m.: Finally, some good news for Joe Biden. The massive early-and-mail vote in Maricopa County dump was for good for him. The home of Phoenix and plenty of its suburbs has Biden leading 54.2% to 44.6% with 77% of the county reporting. Keep in mind Maricopa has a bit more than 60% of the population of the state.
The other good news for Biden is that in the Senate race, Democrat Mark Kelly is only running 1% point ahead of him against incumbent Martha McSally. The former astronaut Kelly, husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was a strong favorite to take that seat.
Biden is clearly not out of the woods here yet in the Grand Canyon State yet, and you might not see a call anytime soon. But Arizona is the clubhouse leader be the first state to flip from red to blue in 2020 it would appear as of now.
10:00 p.m.: The odds are for sure moving towards Donald Trump, but it looks like it’s all coming down to Pennsylvania. And because that’s a state where Joe Biden spent more time and money than any other, we could be in for a long week.
Philadelphia officials say they will not be reporting any more mail ballot results tonight. About 76,000 have been tallied so far — out of 350,000-some received, says @hollyotterbein.— POLITICO (@politico) November 4, 2020
More #ElectionNight live analysis: https://t.co/SEQYGb7c1Uhttps://t.co/wcpXaV6t5r
But the markets aren’t waiting, and are moving strongly towards Donald Trump. He’s at 1.46 at Pinnacle, and 1.25 at Betfair. If bettors are right, the President will have pulled out the 1-in-10 shot and will be re-elected.
But again: wWe won’t know a winner in Pennsylvania anytime soon, this is going to take awhile, so we still could be blogging about this during college football games this weekend.
9:30 p.m.: We have a major split in the international markets as one has shifted to having Donald Trump as the favorite, and the other still has Biden ahead.
President Trump is now 1.62 at Betfair, and Biden is at 2.2 making Trump the favorite. But Biden is at 1.64 at Pinnacle, with Trump at 2.27.
There’s a MASSIVE arbitrage opportunity for European bettors right now. It’s pretty amazing.
As the numbers start to shake out North Carolina, we’ll probably see more shift in these markets. But it just might be too soon to assess much in Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile PredictIt is still broken and yikes that seems really bad.
9:00 p.m.: The numbers in Pennsylvania are starting to trickle in, and in a state that is probably now needed for Biden to win the election, he seems to be performing where he wants.
The problem with Pennsylvania is that it might take two or three days to count all the votes, as tabulating mail-in ballots wasn’t allowed until today. Right now Biden is at 1.53 in PA, which translates to a 65.4% implied probability to win. Pinnacle has temporarily taken down their Pennsylvania market. And PredictIt is still broken.
There are still paths for Biden to win without the Keystone State, but they might involve winning both North Carolina and Arizona together. Or putting Ohio on the table.
You’d rather be Biden right now, but we’ve got a long night (week??) ahead of us still.
8:30 p.m.: It’s official: Trump wins Florida, and it was called at 8:13 p.m. We’d check on how that affects trading at PredictIt, but they’re still down and likely never returning to service ever again. We will track the lawsuits from furious traders, as they’re on Twitter tagging the Commodities Futures Trade Commission and the FBI as we speak. Yeah, people are mad and they should be.
There are no surprises in the calls anywhere else, and you can track who is winning which state from DraftKings here. We’re adding the winner of each state once it’s called by a major media outlet.
The next swing states on the board are Georgia and North Carolina, and 60% of the vote in North Carolina is reported Joe Biden leads by 10%. That’s not completely accurate as a lot of early vote and vote-by-mail is included with that number, and it looks to be more urban than rural, but these seem to be decent numbers for Biden early.
However Donald Trump leads at Pinnacle with $1.49 returned per $1 wagered, and 1.44 at Betfair.
7:55 p.m.: Is PredictIt losing their Commodities Futures Trade Commission exemption because their website went down with millions and millions of dollars unable to be traded? Can we bet on this? It’s a massive blow for the site where Americans can legally wager on the election. And as a market, it’s assumed people would be attempting to be trading all night long.
By the way: Things like this are why you want to bet in legal markets whenever possible, my friends. Let’s hope DraftKings Sportsbook is available to you in your state either currently or soon!
The international markets have basically moved Florida to Trump, with him at 1.28 at Pinnacle and a mere 1.07 at Betfair. The lack of performance of Joe Biden in Miami-Dade County is likely his doom in the state.
But it hasn’t affected the national markets too much: Biden is at 1.73 to win the Presidency at Betfair, and 1.70 at Pinnacle.
7:20 p.m.: Well we were hoping to update you on the movement via PredictIt... but the site is down. And wow is that terrible timing from them! This could have long-term implications for the future of their site, as not having enough bandwidth on E-Day is pretty bad if you’re, you know, an election prediction site.
And while Joe Biden is still favored to win the Presidency, some rough numbers for him out of Miami-Dade County in Florida have him going from 1.4 to 1.5 as the overall winner at Betfair. Trump is at 1.5 at Betfair to win Florida, making him a two-to-one favorite presently.
But Biden holds at 1.41 at Pinnacle as the next president.
6:45 p.m.: The markets, they are moving. Joe Biden has hit .69 at PredictIt to be the winner, which is a nice figure for his early backers on that market.
But the reality is that we’re all waiting for 7:00 p.m., which will give us a massive data dump from the 67 counties of Florida with actual totals from all early voting and vote-by-mail from the state with 29 electoral votes. If Biden wins FL this evening, which is a state that actually counts votes pretty quickly thanks to the reforms after the 2000 election disaster, you’ll probably go to bed knowing who will be the next president. Even people on the east coast won’t go to bed that early.
There are also early signs of some counties in Indiana and Kentucky, the first states that have actual results posting, of Biden outperforming Hillary Clinton in similar counties. That’s anecdotal of course, and also won’t impact the electoral college as if Biden actually won either state he’ll be the victor in such a wave election it won’t be close.
5:00 p.m.: We’ve finally got some movement, and it’s in the direction of Joe Biden.
For the first time today, PredictIt has put North Carolina in the blue team column, as it’ll cost you .53 to buy a futures contract that will convert to $1 if Joe Biden wins. That’s up seven cents on the day. The movement is the same in the Tar Heel State at Betfair, where Biden started today at $1.73 to win the state, paying that much in return for every $1 wagered. That’s down to $1.67 presently.
Biden’s PredictIt numbers are basically the same across the board: Up .06 in Wisconsin, .07 in Michigan, .05 in Arizona. He’s also up .05 in Georgia, but still an underdog with Trump leading in the Peach State .59-.45.
At 7:00 p.m., when we’ll get a massive data dump all at once from the 67 counties of Florida where around two-thirds of ballot casters voted early, we’ll know a lot more about the state of this race.
2:00 p.m.: If you’re into anecdotal data (and you shouldn’t be!), beat reporters across our country keep telling us how short the lines to vote are today. And with about 100 million Americans voting before E-Day via mail-in or early voting, it certainly makes sense that democracy is a bit easier than normal today.
The markets remain mostly copasetic as of 2 p.m. Although Biden opened at 1.485 today on Pinnacle to put his hand on the bible next January 20th, but is now just 1.413. That’s about a 2% move in his direction overall.
At PredictIt, there’s been more movement. Wisconsin has moved to .74, that’s .04 in Biden’s direction. And Georgia is at .40, which is .02 for the Democrat as well.
12:00 p.m.: As we hit noon on election day, there are a few places where we can see the money flowing one way or another.
Donald Trump is up about $0.05 in Florida on PredictIt, from .60 to .65, with Biden falling to below .40 for the first time in awhile. Whether that’s based on early voting numbers leaking (they’re counted already) or lines at polling places (it was in the 50’s across most of the I-4 Corridor this morning, chilly for Floridians).
The President has also ticked up in Arizona, where he leads .54 to .50 via PredictIt, about a .03 shift in his direction since this morning. At Pinnacle, Biden has fallen from 2.22 (meaning $1 will return $2.22 to a winning bettor) to 2.37 in the Sunshine State in early trading today.
But these markets don’t seem to have effected the winner, where Donald Trump is now at 3.00 at Pinnacle (meaning he’s a 2-to-1 underdog), or at PredictIt where it is Biden at $0.64 to win, with Trump at $0.42 to retain his presidency.
And a good time for one data journalist to remind us of something:
You're not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
Normally we cover sports around here, but some of the biggest betting of 2020 will take place on the outcome of the American election, including for President of the United States.
We’ll be here all day documenting the ups-and-downs of the markets as people both in the United States and across the world place their bets on who will be the next President, Senators, and members of the House of Representatives. And perhaps some of the most interesting action will be on the winner of each state for President.
You can take a look at some the latest odds here, but the pattern is consistent: If you believe the polls, there’s tremendous value to bet on Joe Biden. The numbers simply aren’t aligned between what the polls believe will happen and what the betting markets say.
It’s going to be a long, long evening no matter the results, and we’ll see what happens from race to race as the evening continues.
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