Before getting to my favorite plays, I want to touch on the spread, which is not among my picks this week.
Going into Sunday’s contests, the Chiefs were getting a lot of the action ATS. They were getting an even larger percentage of handle, too (only a few percentage points). But once Monday rolled around, more bets started coming the Raiders’ way. They’re still only getting 21% of the ATS bets on DraftKings Sportsbook as of writing, but that’s a notable increase from Sunday, when KC was getting over 80% of the ATS bets. More importantly, the Raiders are getting 31% of the handle. The sharps seem to like Raiders.
That said, Patrick Mahomes has been too good against this particular division opponent in the past, and the Raiders have also been disappointing to start the year. Just keep in mind: If you want to follow the sharps, wait for the Raiders to get the extra half point (7.5 vs. 7).
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
Another reason I could get behind the Raiders ATS on MNF is signs point toward the under hitting. But enough about the spread.
The Raiders have not been great in Kansas City throughout the Patrick Mahomes era. In their four trips there during that span, they’re 1-3. More importantly, they’ve only scored 15 or more points once in their last four trips to KC. Moreover, the Raiders failed to score at least 10 points in two of the sub-15-point performances.
Now, the Chiefs have done well at home vs. the Raiders in the Mahomes era, scoring 35, 40, 32 and 48 points. But, they’ve still only combined to go over Monday’s total in two of those four games.
Then there’s the matter of hammering the unders on prime-time games. Through the first 15, the under is 11-4 in 2022 NFL prime-time games. Also, the sharps continue to lean toward the under. Despite the play only getting 32% of the bets, it’s getting 44% of the handle on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jacobs is back, and the Raiders will need to involve him heavily Monday regardless of whether this game turns into a high- or low-scoring affair.
Following a modest season opener, Jacobs has flirted with this number each week. After logging 81 all-purpose yards in Week 2, he went over 95 all-purpose yards the next two weeks. Austin Ekeler is the only running back who’s gone over this number vs. Kansas City. However, two other backfields have combined to log at least 86 all-purpose yards vs. the Chiefs this season. Jacobs will lose a few touches to one of the other Raiders running backs throughout the game, but he has been the bell cow back the last three weeks.
This is far from the flashiest play on the board, but all that matters is getting a good shot for a W at a good price. Carlson provides just that.
Vegas’ kicker has been working quite a bit to start the season, driving home 12 field goals through the first four games. He’s gone over this number each week, bottoming out at two in the season opener.
Now, Carlson has only gone over this number once vs. KC in his career. He has a chance at a second time, but one of his 16 career misses did come vs. the Chiefs previously. Still, the only time’s he’s had multi-FGA games vs. the Chiefs have come in KC.
While only one kicker has only gone over this number vs. the Chiefs in 2022, that’s also partially been the result of teams finding the end zone vs. Kansas City. The Raiders have one of the worst red-zone scoring percentages (touchdowns only), thus helping lead to Carlson’s high number of field goals to start the season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.