If you asked someone what has made them the most money on these Thursday night primetime games, they likely will talk about the under on the game total. Coming into Week 7, the under has been crushing it with a 5-1 record. We can ride that once again this week but I have some other plays I want to discuss as well. Let’s take a look.
It’s amazing to me that even with all the injuries the Saints are still dealing with AND the Cardinals loading back up at receiver this week, I STILL am taking the Saints at +2. Even with no Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Adam Trautman and Marshon Lattimore, I still think they cover against the Cardinals. This is really more about how bad the Cardinals have been, after they managed just just nine points last week against a bad Seahawks defense. Granted, the Cardinals will be getting star receiver DeAndre Hopkins back and newly acquired wideout Robby Anderson is also expected to be active. I simply think this team can’t get out of their own way.
This is also a scenario where head coach Kliff Kingsbury has not performed well. As a favorite, he’s 8-15 against the spread. It gets even worse as a slight favorite, as he’s 1-7 ATS when favored by three or less points. I think with both Anderson and Hopkins in the mix, this offense is going to take a turn in the right direction but I don’t believe it starts this week. I expect Murray to be dealing with some pressure in this game, a scenario he’s experienced on 28% of his dropbacks. Murray has a 38% completion percentage and only 2.7 yards per pass attempt when under duress.
Seems like a really low total to take the under on, right? Well, if you haven’t been paying attention to the Cardinals (can’t blame you), this is a number they’re consistently going under. In fact, the Cardinals are the lowest scoring team during the first half in the league. If you can believe it, they’re averaging just 4.8 points in the first half of games this season. It gets even worse! Last week against the Seahawks, the Cardinals scored in the first quarter for the FIRST TIME this season. Thanks to a Matt Ammendola field goal, it snapped a 38-0 streak for the Cardinals through the first five weeks. I’m looking to continue to ride this trend on the Cardinals as they look to try and get this offense back on track.
Oh, they also just released Ammendola earlier this week. Quite odd, seeing as he was the only man on the team that was able to put them on the scoreboard in the first quarter.
With all the injuries the Saints offense has sustained, you would think Kamara would have a touchdown right now. Yet, he’s still in search of his first on the year. Despite averaging over 20 touches per game, something only eight running backs have done this season, Kamara is the only one amongst them yet to score. It’s not as if Kamara isn’t getting the opportunities either. He’s played four games this season and has nine touches in the red zone. The majority of those game over his last two games, logging four touches in each game.
The Cardinals have not been a strong team against the run. They allow an average of 112 yards per game and six touchdowns to the position. With so many injuries to their receivers, Kamara should be utilized heavily in the passing game. Kamara has seen at least six targets and 15 carries in three straight games. For someone you would rarely see with plus odds to score a touchdown last season, this is a great value spot for someone that is extremely involved in the offense.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.