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MLB Picks for October 22: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for October 22.

Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook plays for Game 3 of the ALCS and Game 4 of the NLCS.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros

Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts -115

The Guardians don’t provide nearly the same punch as the Astros, but if Cleveland did one thing better than any team this year it’s put the ball in play. No lineup had a lower season-long K rate against righties (17.3%), and the same goes for their mark within the split after September 1 (16.8%). Yet, Cole managed to go over this number in both his starts vs. the Guardians during the divisional round.

Houston also had one of the lower strikeout rates against right-handed pitching throughout the season (20.4%). Once September began, they got even tougher to punch out (18.8%). Luis Castillo is the only one to go over this mark vs. Houston this postseason. However, Cole went over this number vs. the Astros in Yankee Stadium when he saw them back in June. And that was also a month in which they weren’t striking out much against right-handers.

Total under 7 runs -115

On top of the good strikeout numbers Cole posted vs. Houston earlier in the year, he limited them to one run on four hits and a walk. More importantly, neither of the two Yankee starting pitchers who have seen the Astros to this point are on the same level as him, yet they’ve helped hold Houston to seven runs through the first two games. Cole combined with a bullpen that’s finally had a day of respite should be enough to at least maintain the numbers the Yankees have posted throughout the early portion of the ALCS.

And while I do lean toward the Yankees winning Game 3 (-145), I prefer the total because the combination of Cristian Javier and a rested Astros bullpen is also very tough. The Houston right-hander fared well vs. the Yankees in his two meetings against them earlier in the season, and both outings came before the Yanks’ nightmarish slump. Asking him to navigate this lineup comfortably again while it isn’t putting up big numbers doesn’t seem like a big ask.

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

Padres -105
Padres First Five Innings over 1.5 runs -150

For all their success against left-handed pitching, the Padres were shut down by Ranger Suarez in Game 3. In some ways, that’s a surprise. But as much as he’s not nearly on the same level as Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, Suarez was pretty electric after the All-Star break.

While he has a solid rookie season, Bailey Falter isn’t on that same level. He was also bad in games played at Citizens Bank Park, posting a 5.49 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 41.3% fly-ball rate and 27.3% line-drive rate throughout 2022.

While I don’t love backing Mike Clevinger these days, he can at least keep the offense within striking distance throughout his outing. He’s also got a bullpen right behind him that came more than do the job once handed a lead.

One last note, specifically for the First Five Innings bet: The Padres have gone over this number against three of the four left-handed starting pitchers they’ve seen this postseason (Suarez, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias).

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.