After an unexpected two-day layoff, the World Series will be back in business on Tuesday. The series currently stands at one game apiece, so Game 3 could potentially be the one that decides the series. Taking a 2-1 series lead in a best-of-seven series has historically been difficult to overcome, so both teams will try to avoid falling into that scenario.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite wagers for Game 3 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies:
Astros ML (-125)
Game 3 of the World Series was officially postponed on Monday, which means the Phillies will opt for a different starter than originally anticipated. Noah Syndergaard was expected to get the ball in this spot, but the team will go with Ranger Suarez instead.
Suarez has undoubtedly been a better pitcher than Syndergaard this season. His overall numbers don’t jump off the page – 3.65 ERA, 3.87 FIP – but his numbers were better over the second half of the year. He’s carried success into the postseason, racking up a 1.86 ERA across 9 2/3 innings.
However, Suarez has undoubtedly been a bit fortunate. His 4.46 FIP during the playoffs is significantly higher than his traditional ERA, and the Astros have the type of offense that can bring about regression in a hurry. They were second in wRC+ against southpaws during the regular season, so Suarez is going to have his hands full.
On the other side, the Astros will hand the ball to Lance McCullers Jr. He’s proven himself to be a big-game pitcher, and he owns a 2.45 ERA and a 1.84 FIP so far this postseason. He now owns a 2.77 ERA across 68 1/3 playoff innings for his career, and he’s racked up 75 strikeouts. The Phillies’ offense is no joke either, but I’ll take my chances with McCullers and the Astros’ nasty bullpen.
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
McCullers was fantastic in his first start of the postseason, racking up seven strikeouts while allowing just two hits over six scoreless innings. He faced a bit of adversity in his second outing, with the Yankees getting to him for three runs in the first two innings. However, he managed to right the ship and get through five, and his teammates were able to pick him up and pull off a comeback victory.
Even in a slightly shorter start than usual, McCullers was still able to rack up six strikeouts vs. the Yankees. The Phillies possess a similar lineup to the Bronx Bombers, combining plenty of power with some swing-and-miss potential. They had a 22.3% strikeout rate against right-handers during the regular season, which ranked 16th in the league.
McCullers has averaged 10.64 strikeouts per nine innings so far this postseason, so he likely needs to get through five innings to hit the over on 5.5. I’m happy to take that risk at +110.
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
Suarez has been death on left-handed batters this season, limiting them to just a .237 wOBA, but he’s been somewhat vulnerable against righties. They’ve managed a .332 wOBA, and he’s posted a 4.09 FIP in that split.
That could spell trouble against Bregman. His numbers were a bit down during the regular season, but he remains one of the preeminent left-killers in baseball. He owns a .299 career batting average and a 151 wRC+ in that split, and he’s also been hot during the postseason. Bregman has posted a .316 batting average and a .632 slugging percentage, racking up six singles, three doubles, and three homers in 38 at-bats.
You could take a flyer on Bregman to go yard at +600, but Suarez allowed less than one homer per nine innings against right-handed batters. Bregman over 1.5 total bases feels a bit safer, and we’re still rewarded with a solid +145 payout if it hits.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.