Friday was full of surprises, especially in the NL games. Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks Day 2 of the 2022 MLB postseason.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Tyler Glasnow will get another look at the first team he saw in 2022 — one of only two teams he’s gotten a look at. Of course, we can’t expect him to go as long as Shane McClanahan did on Friday, between the Rays being in do-or-die mode and Glasnow only making his third MLB start since returning from injury. However, he’s shown he can still be lock-down in the few innings Tampa Bay will allow him to throw. The strikeouts might not be there (under 5.5 is worthwhile, however the payout is -170), but Cleveland didn’t hit for much power against righties throughout the year (.137). He’s also backed by a solid, consistent bullpen — one that is rested after McClanahan ate up seven innings in Game 1.
Much of the same that’s said about Cleveland’s offense can be said about Tampa’s — except the Rays strike out far more against right-handed pitching. That bodes well with Triston McKenzie on the mound. He only gave up more than two runs in nine of his 31 starts this season. Of the 21 starts in which he gave up two runs or fewer, McKenzie lasted at least six innings (putting the over on his total outs props in play at 16.5 -140).
The under also hit at a high frequency for both teams throughout the season. When you look at the pertinent splits, the only one that isn’t in favor of the under hitting is Cleveland’s rate in home games — but a 40-40-2 record is nothing more than a neutral number.
It took all nine innings for the over to hit in Game 1, but that might not be the case with the pitching matchup scheduled for Saturday.
While the Phillies ranked within the top 10 in ISO against both righties and lefties throughout the regular season, they’ve struggled with left-handed pitching since the start of September. Not only have they posted a .136 ISO since then, they also have a 28.5% strikeout rate against lefties since then.
That’s not the case with right-handed pitching, which is what they’ll get to start Game 2. Philadelphia has a .189 ISO against righties since September 1. Perhaps more importantly, the Phillies only have a 21.7% strikeout rate within the split during the same time frame, and they only have 22.3% strikeout rate on the year against righties. As much as Mile Mikolas is punching out hitters at the highest rate he ever has in his career, his strikeout rate was still a measly 19% this season.
It seems most likely that the brunt of the work will fall on Philly’s back in this one based on who they’re trotting out. However, the Cardinals did get to Aaron Nola for five runs earlier in the season. There isn’t enough to back St. Louis to ambush Nola like that again, especially after Friday’s frustrating loss, but it’s enough to know they can at minimum accent Philly’s offense in pursuit of seven-plus runs.
Also worth noting: The over was 51-33 after a Philadelphia win this season, and was 42-37-3 in Cardinals games played at Busch Stadium this season.
Philadelphia’s wild comeback did not feature a hit from Harper, making it all the more likely he goes off in Game 2. He’s got a much more favorable matchup, having hit .300 with a .253 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. That success was thanks to his quality of contact, posting a 40% fly-ball rate, 22.9% ground-ball rate and 40.1% hard-contact rate against righties throughout 2022. He also had just a 17.9% strikeout rate against righties this season, which plays big against Mikolas.
Additionally, Harper is 4-for-10 with a double and a home run against the St. Louis right-hander in his career.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.