The Titans and Packers are set to kick off Week 11 with this prime-time matchup. The Packers are -3.5 point home favorites, a scenario they’ve gone 1-2 against the spread in. The Titans are underdogs for the fifth time this season but have found plenty of success ATS in this scenario. They’re 3-1 as dogs overall and 2-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Overall, the injury report is fairly clean on both sides as the Packers will be without WR Romeo Doubs and LB De’Vondre Campbell. The Titans will be without K Randy Bullock and a number of players on the defensive side.
This is a low total but I’m still comfortable with taking the under. The Titans have been one of the slowest paced teams in the league, averaging just 56.1 plays per game. That is only better than the Panthers, average just over 55 per game. The Titans are also slightly under their season average of their last three games at 55.3 plays. The Titans aren’t exactly putting up a ton of points lately either. In fact, they’ve been under 20 points in four straight games, while their opponents have eclipsed 20 points themselves. In all, the Titans have seen an average game total of 30 points over the past month.
Where the Packers would be able to exploit the Titans is through the air. The problem is, and it’s well documented, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had many great options to catch what he’s airing out. Rodgers is averaging just 231.5 passing yards and has yet to go over 291 on the year. While he will have his options with Allen Lazard, Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins, I think the Packers will still continue to struggle to score. With both teams averaging just over 18 points per game, I think we see another classic, low scoring Thursday night.
Asking for at least 100 rushing yards from a running back can be a dicey proposition to ask for, especially with -120 to the over. But, we’re not talking about an ordinary running back, we’re talking about King Henry. I think this matchup can be compared to the one he recently had against the Texans, where he completely went off for 219 yards on 32 carries. While I can’t sit here and say he’ll have a similar line, I’m very confident he’ll go over the 99.5 rushing yard threshold.
The Packers have allowed the second-most rushing yards, trailing the Texans. Allowing an average of 128 per game and over five yards per carry, this sets up for another monster spot for Henry. He’s gaining over 4.6 YPC himself and has been so good after contact. Henry leads the league in yards after contact with 766. How impressive is this, you may ask? Well, it’s 155 yards MORE than the next in line in Nick Chubb, who has 611. Henry has amassed an average of 3.79 yards after contact per attempt, which trails only Chubb. This is amongst all running backs with at least 100 carries on the season. With this in mind, we could see Henry go over 100 rushing yards for the sixth (!) time this year.
No one is going deep down field more than Rodgers. Despite his lack of receivers, he’s taken more shots down field of at least 20 yards 54 times this season. Of those attempts, he’s completed 37% of those attempts for an average of 30.6 yards. In terms of a single completion, he’s gone over 36.5 yards in five of his 10 games. As I mentioned earlier, the way to beat the Titans is through the air, as they continue to struggle in the secondary. They’ve allowed just under 11 yards per completion, which is just outside the top ten in the league. With the number of shots that Rodgers is taking downfield, I think he has a big opportunity in this game environment to go over this number.
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