Here are my favorite player props for the Week 11 of the 2022 NFL regular season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Eagles may be on short rest after getting shocked by the Commanders, but they’re too good to go through something like that again. Even if Jonathan Taylor joins the other running backs who’ve found success vs. Philadelphia this season, the Eagles sure won’t get smoked by the likes of Ryan. Even in the loss vs. Washington, the Eagles held Taylor Heinicke under his receiving prop, which was a smidge lower than Ryan’s is this week.
The Indy QB has gone over this number five times in eight games this season, and the over on his passing prop is 4-3 throughout 2022. In the instances he’s cleared this number, Ryan has blown past it by 24 yards or more four times, which adds to the suspiciousness of how low this prop is. When considering the Eagle’ side of it, the play becomes clear: Philly has given up 228 passing yards or more once all season.
While this isn’t an option on DraftKings Sportsbook as of writing, it might be worth looking into a Same Game Parlay option centered around Ryan as the weekend progresses. Taking him to throw an interception (-150 straight up) while throwing under 244.5 passing yards (next-lowest number is 219.5) could prove profitable.
There was a brief stretch this season in which quarterbacks peppered the Saints. New Orleans has still had its struggles of late, but the opposing quarterbacks haven’t been throwing the ball all over the yard. Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith and Joe Burrow are the only three to go over this number vs. New Orleans, doing so from Week 4 to 6.
Now, the Saints have faced some rough quarterbacks. But, guess what? Stafford hasn’t been good this season. Sure, he’s gone over this number six times in eight games, but the under has hit on his passing prop six times, too. Combine all of that with the somewhat significant detail that Cooper Kupp is on injured reserve, and I have zero hesitation about fading Stafford vs. the Saints.
Even with him being limited at practice this week, Jefferson’s number managed to rise a tick from Thursday. A one-yard bump is hardly enough of a deterrent, especially as long as his number is under the century mark.
Jefferson has hit the over on his receiving props seven times in nine games this season. He’s also gone over this number seven times throughout the regular season. While Kirk Cousins’ biggest pop came on the road in Week 10, Minnesota’s QB has been more consistent at home, which bodes well for this play.
Now, Cooper Kupp and Christian Watson are the only two wide receivers who’ve gone over this mark vs. the Cowboys this season. But Watson came out of nowhere to do so, and his performance came after Darnell Mooney posted 70 yards on five targets vs. Dallas. Combine Dallas’ recent struggles against the wide receiver position with the strength of Jefferson’s connection with Cousins (which leads to endless targets), and Minnesota’s superstar pass-catcher should be able to get over this number again.
For all the positive said about Cousins above, there’s one trend that simply has to end. He’s only thrown one pick at U.S. Bank Stadium all season. Sure, he’s better at home, but that simply can’t last. Outside of 2019 when he only logged interceptions in two home games, Cousins has thrown at least one interception in four home games each season with Minnesota. Yet, he has just one through four home contests in 2022. That can’t last.
The Cowboys have seven interceptions on the season but have only logged five in nine games. Still, I don’t mind the latter stat since Dallas has failed to log an INT the last two games. The secondary is due — just like Cousins.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.