Last week brought an 0-2-1 record for my underdog picks, with a brutal beat on the Jets +3.5 because of a Patriots punt return for a touchdown in the final seconds not helping matters. For the season, my overall record is now 17-13-3. I’ll look to bounce back with the following three Week 12 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Titans +2.5
The Bengals won a high-scoring affair vs. the Steelers last week, giving them their fourth victory over their last five games. It’s worth noting, though, that their wins came against the Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers — none of which have winning records. They hope to get some reinforcements on offense for this matchup with Ja’Marr Chase (hip) trending towards making his return after missing three straight games. They could be without Joe Mixon (concussion), though, which would force Samaje Perine into a more prominent role.
The Titans have been on their own hot streak, winning seven of their last eight games. Their only loss during that stretch came by just three points vs. the Chiefs in Kansas City. Their only home loss this season was a one-point defeat at the hands of the Giants in Week 1. If Mixon can’t play, the Bengals will be fighting an uphill battle, considering the Titans have only allowed an average of 18.5 points per game. Add in home-field advantage and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Titans put a stop to the Bengals’ recent run of success.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders: Falcons +4
The Commanders are making things even more interesting in the NFC East. They have won five of their last six games, which included a win vs. the Eagles. Their only loss came by three points vs. the Vikings. Taylor Heinicke has helped stabilize the quarterback position, and their defense has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game in the league.
As good as the Commanders have been, they have played in a lot of close games. Two of their last four wins have come by two or fewer points. The Falcons have also played in a lot of close contests, with seven of their games being decided by four or fewer points. Losing Kyle Pitts (knee) is not a good thing for the Falcons, but they can still keep this game close. They could end up throwing more passes to Drake London, who has registered a touchdown in back-to-back games.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts: Steelers +2.5
This is the matchup for Monday Night Football. It’s not a great one, with the teams combining for a 7-13 record. The Colts have started to show some life under new coach Jeff Saturday, which included losing to the Eagles in Week 11 by only one point. Matt Ryan was sacked four times in that game, marking the fourth time over nine games that he has been sacked at least four times.
Ryan’s sack totals are noteworthy with T.J. Watt back for the Steelers. He’s been limited to three games because of injuries, which has contributed to the Steelers only totaling 19 sacks as a team. Their defense has played well against the run at least, allowing just five rushing touchdowns all season. Another reason to like the Steelers here is that Najee Harris has started to catch fire, recording back-to-back games with at least 90 rushing yards. He even produced two touchdowns vs. the Bengals last week. If the Steelers’ defense can keep Jonathan Taylor out of the end zone, they could win this game outright.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.