Here are my favorite player props for the Week 12 of the 2022 NFL regular season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Sam Darnold is back, so all is well in Carolina.
No, of course I’m not being serious. But who cares how the Panthers do? Honestly, It only matters so much how Darnold does, too. Much like the quarterbacks Carolina has trotted out this season, Darnold was brutal last season — but he largely maintained a strong connection with Moore throughout it all.
Yes, Moore has been targeted much less frequently than he was in 2021. But in Darnold’s first game back, it only seems logical for him to look for his pacifier. Moore was targeted no fewer than seven times in every game which Darnold played last season, and the Carolina wideout went over this number in eight of those 12 games Darnold played.
Also, 10 wide receivers have gone over this number vs. the Broncos throughout 2022 – with three pairs of teammates doing so in the same week. Parris Campbell was the one slot receiver to get past this number, which also bodes well for Moore.
While strange numbers have pushed me toward the under of late, this one hasn’t had the same impact. Sure, that’s probably because McCaffrey blew past this number on Monday Night Football — a game in which his receiving prop hovered around Week 12’s mark. Above all else, he’s getting the targets to make this a comfortable number to attack regardless of San Fran’s opponent.
Speaking of which, only one running back has gone over this number vs. the Saints throughout 2022. That 40-yard performance from Jaylen Warren came in Week 10, just two weeks after Josh Jacobs and Ameer Abdullah combined for 39 receiving yards vs. New Orleans. The week before that, Eno Benjamin and Keaontay Ingram combined for 44 receiving yards.
Not one backfield has seen more than a combined six targets vs. the Saints. After only getting two in his 49ers debut, McCaffrey hasn’t received fewer than six targets while averaging 8.47 yards per catch. And with the 49ers rolling so deep, the Saints should have a tough time limiting his yards per catch while respecting San Fran’s other pass catchers.
Rodgers has straightened some things out since his three-interception performance vs. Lions, who by no means have a strong defense. As much as they forced at least one interception in each of the three games after they saw Rodgers, opposing quarterbacks have largely put together clean sheets vs. the Lions.
That’s not been the case with the Eagles. In fact, all but two opposing quarterbacks have thrown an interception vs. Philadelphia this season. With Matt Ryan getting away without one in Week 11, the next QB Philly faces is all the more likely to get picked off. On top of that, Rodgers has gone interception-free the last two games, increasing his likelihood to throw his eighth of the season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.