Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Steelers-Colts.
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Pittsburgh’s QB has either blown past this number or gone under 200 yards throughout his rookie campaign. The under is an even 3-3 on his passing props this season, and he’s gone under this number three times, too. The Colts also do a good job of taking away the deep ball. That’s had a significant impact on the numbers opposing quarterbacks are putting up vs. Indianapolis.
Not a single quarterback has thrown for 300 yards or more vs. the Colts this season. Surprisingly, the season-high mark of 279 passing yards belongs to Taylor Heinicke — which did happen at an Indy home game. Jalen Hurts got his fill of work on the ground, but he only logged 180 yards through air in Week 11 vs. the Colts. While it might behoove Indy to challenge Pickett to win the game with his arm, that’s still a tough task for the rookie. And even if the Colts take that approach, limiting yardage from opposing quarterbacks is still a strength of theirs — and there’s been no indication of that changing under Jeff Saturday.
Harris has only gone over this number three times throughout 2022, but he’s also come within three yards of going over this mark on two occasions. Furthermore, two of the times he’s gone over Monday’s number have come in Pittsburgh’s last three games.
With the Colts likely to make deep looks tough for the Steelers, Harris should get opportunities in the passing game. Additionally, Indy has allowed opposing running backs to go past this number with regularity while generally limiting their work on the ground. A running back has gone over this number in eight of Indy’s 11 games, and 11 running backs in total have gone over this mark vs. the Colts.
There has been some fluctuation with this number, but Monday’s total is right back to where it opened at 39.5. The public is riding the over at 57%, but it appears there is some sharp money on the over, with the over making up 63% of the handle for game total bets.
Still, the under is where I lean with the under hitting so frequently for the Colts this season. Some of that’s been due to offensive ineptitude, some of that’s been to Indy’s defense — like last game vs. the Eagles. Since the Steelers still haven’t put everything together offensively, despite the talent they possess, the Colts should be able to set the tone at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the under is 4-1 this season. The under is also 4-1 when the Colts have been favored this season, and it’s 3-2 when the Steelers are on the road.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.