As we start the second half of the NFL regular season, Week 10 should be another good one, featuring several key matchups as teams jockey for playoff positioning before the stretch run. The action gets underway on Thursday Night Football with one of the three divisional matchups on tap this week, as the Falcons and Panthers meet just two weeks after their thrilling overtime game in Atlanta.
On Sunday, things get off to an early start with a matchup at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. There are seven 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday kickoffs, followed by three late games, including another NFC West showdown and a great matchup between the Packers and Cowboys. The Sunday night game is a West Coast contest between the Chargers and 49ers, and we close out the week with the unbeaten Eagles taking on a divisional rival on Monday Night Football.
As you examine all the matchups and get your betting cards ready on DraftKings Sportsbook, take a look at these trends against the spread and totals to help you make the right picks. The lines provided are as of Wednesday morning, and odds and lines are subject to change leading up to kickoff.
Here are some key definitions of acronyms that we’ll use throughout the article:
- SU: Straight Up
- ATS: Against the Spread
- O/U: Over/Under
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3; O/U 43.5)
Falcons ATS: 6-3
Falcons O/U: 5-4
Falcons average total game points: 49.4
Falcons as favorite: 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS
After starting the year 6-0 ATS, the Falcons have dropped three straight ATS, including their matchup with Carolina on October 30. That contest was the only other game this season in which Atlanta was the favorite, and they won in overtime but failed to cover. They are also coming off a loss SU and ATS vs. the Chargers last week. The Falcons have dominated their division rivals from Carolina lately, going 8-2 SU in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 10-4 ATS in their 14 most recent matchups. The under is 6-0 in Atlanta’s last six Thursday games and 4-2 in its last six games overall.
Panthers ATS: 3-6
Panthers O/U: 4-5
Panthers average total game points: 45.2
Panthers as underdog: 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS
The Panthers are 2-14 SU/3-13 ATS in their past 16 games after losing SU and ATS to Cincinnati. They did look much better on offense in the second half after Baker Mayfield came back into the lineup, so there is some cause for optimism. Carolina is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 home games, 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games against a team with a winning record and just 1-6 ATS in its last seven Thursday games. The under is 13-5-1 in the 19 past meetings between the Panthers and Falcons, and it’s 7-3 in the Panthers' last 10 divisional matchups.
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5; O/U 44.5)
Seahawks ATS: 6-3
Seahawks O/U: 5-4
Seahawks average total game points: 51.2
Seahawks as underdog: 5-2 SU/5-2 ATS
Seattle won SU and ATS as an underdog in Arizona and will travel to Germany to play as an underdog again in this Sunday morning matchup vs. the Bucs. The Seahawks are 5-1 SU/5-1 ATS in their past six games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games against an NFC opponent. However, they are only 5-13-1 in their last 20 games against the NFC South and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. the Buccaneers. The over is 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven games overall and 7-3 in its last 10 against the NFC.
Buccaneers ATS: 2-6-1
Buccaneers O/U: 2-7
Buccaneers average total game points: 36.2
Buccaneers as favorite: 4-5 SU/2-6-1 ATS
The Bucs rallied to beat the Rams SU and pushed ATS last week in another memorable game-winning drive from Tom Brady. They are still just 2-5 SU/0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the NFC West. The under is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five games and 6-0 in its last six games vs. the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-4.5; O/U 45)
Vikings ATS: 3-4-1
Vikings O/U: 4-4
Vikings average total game points: 44.2
Vikings as underdog: 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
The Vikings won SU in Washington and pushed ATS last week. They are 6-0 SU in their last six games but only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games. The total has gone under in six straight road games for Minnesota but has gone over in 11 of Minnesota’s last 16 contests overall.
Bills ATS: 4-4
Bills O/U: 1-7
Bills average total game points: 42.3
Bills as favorite: 6-2 SU/4-3-1 ATS
The health of Josh Allen’s elbow will continue to be the top storyline to watch this week for Buffalo. He was injured in last week’s SU and ATS loss vs. the Jets. Buffalo is 7-0 SU/5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 7-2-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in the Bills’ last six games and 4-1 in the last five head-to-head matchups between these teams.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3; O/U 48.5)
Lions ATS: 4-4
Lions O/U: 5-3
Lions average total game points: 52.8
Lions as underdog: 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS
The Lions knocked off the Packers SU and ATS at home last week and are now 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the NFC North. They’ll get another divisional game this week but are 0-7 SU in their last seven road games and 1-7 SU in their last eight games against the Bears. The over is 7-3 in Detroit’s last 10 games and 6-2 in its last eight games against the NFC.
Bears ATS: 4-4-1
Bears O/U: 3-6
Bears average total game points: 44.8
Bears as favorite: 1-0 SU/0-0-1 ATS
Justin Fields appears to have turned the corner and is quickly becoming one of the most fun players in the NFL to watch. He led the Bears to cover last week vs. the Dolphins, and Chicago almost won SU. The Bears will be favored for just the second time this season, and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, as well as 4-1-1 in their last six games vs. the Lions. However, the Bears are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven divisional games and 3-7 SU in their last 10 games at home. The over is 4-1 in Chicago’s last five games, but the under is 22-9 in its last 31 home games.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5; O/U 39)
Broncos ATS: 3-5
Broncos O/U: 1-7
Broncos average total game points: 31.6
Broncos as underdog: 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS
The Broncos won SU and ATS vs. Jacksonville in London before taking their bye last week. They are only 1-6 SU in their last seven road games and 1-4 SU in their last five games overall. On the other hand, they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups vs. the Titans. The under is 9-1 in Denver’s last 10 games following an ATS win and 7-2 in its last nine road games.
Titans ATS: 6-2
Titans O/U: 2-6
Titans average total game points: 38.4
Titans as favorite: 2-1 SU/2-1 ATS
Even without Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee almost beat the Chiefs SU on the road Sunday night before losing in overtime. The Titans did manage to cover, though, improving to 6-0 ATS in their last six contests. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. the AFC and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the AFC West. The under is 4-1 in the last five matchups between these two teams and 7-1 in Tennessee’s last eight home games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5; O/U 50.5)
Jaguars ATS: 3-6
Jaguars O/U: 4-5
Jaguars average total game points: 41.9
Jaguars as underdog: 3-3 SU/3-3 ATS
Jacksonville rallied to beat the Raiders SU and ATS last week and will face its second straight AFC West opponent as they travel to Arrowhead. The Jags are just 1-5 SU/1-5 ATS in their past six games overall and 1-5 SU/1-5 ATS in their last six meetings vs. the Chiefs. The over is 6-0 in Jacksonville’s last six road games, but the under is 4-1 in it last five games overall.
Chiefs ATS: 3-4
Chiefs O/U: 4-4
Chiefs average total game points: 54
Chiefs as favorite: 5-1 SU/2-4 ATS
The Chiefs couldn’t cover vs. the Titans last week but did get a SU win in overtime. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. However, they are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games overall. The under is 5-1 in Kansas City’s last six against the AFC and 32-13-1 in its last 46 home games against a team with a losing road record, but the over is 11-5 in the Chiefs’ last 16 games.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5; O/U 48.5)
Browns ATS: 4-4
Browns O/U: 5-2-1
Browns average total game points: 49.9
Browns as underdog: 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS
The Browns soundly defeated the Bengals SU and ATS on Monday Night Football before enjoying their bye week. They’ll return with a tough road game in Miami, but they are 5-3 SU/7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the Dolphins. The Browns are only 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a winning record and 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games against the AFC. The under is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last 6 road games and 7-1 in its last eight games following a SU by more than 14 points.
Dolphins ATS: 4-5
Dolphins O/U: 4-5
Dolphins average total game points: 48.6
Dolphins as favorite: 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS
Miami beat Chicago SU last week but lost ATS. The Dolphins are an impressive 14-4 SU in their last 18 games and 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games but are only 1-5 ATS in their six most recent contests. The under is 4-0 in Miami’s last four home games and 10-4 in its last 14 games vs. the AFC.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5; O/U 41)
Texans ATS: 4-3-1
Texans O/U: 4-4
Texans average total game points: 39.5
Texans as underdog: 1-6-1 SU/4-3-1 ATS
The Texans covered last week but lost SU to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. They are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall and 0-8 SU in their last eight games against the NFC. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record and also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-1 in Houston’s last six road games against a team with a winning home record and 8-3 in its last 11 road games overall.
Giants ATS: 6-2
Giants O/U: 2-6
Giants average total game points: 40
Giants as favorite: 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
The Giants are back from their bye week after having their four-game winning streak both SU and ATS snapped in a Week 8 road loss vs. Seattle. The Giants have gone 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC South. The under is 8-1 in New York’s last nine games at home and 11-1 in its last 12 games against the AFC.
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5; O/U 40)
Saints ATS: 3-6
Saints O/U: 5-4
Saints average total game points: 48.8
Saints as favorite: 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS
The Saints lost SU and ATS vs. the Ravens on Monday and will be on a short week before visiting the Steelers. New Orleans has been good on the road lately, going 38-17 ATS in its last 55 road games and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Saints are only 3-6 SU/3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall but are 13-6 SU in their last 19 road games. The under is 5-1 in the Saints’ last six games against the AFC, but the over is 4-2 in their last six games overall.
Steelers ATS: 3-4-1
Steelers O/U: 3-5
Steelers average total game points: 39.6
Steelers as underdog: 2-5 SU/3-3-1 ATS
Unlike their opponent, the Steelers should be well-rested as they return from their bye week. The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. However, they are just 1-7-1 in their last nine games against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last seven home games and 10-2-1 in its last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record. The under is also 40-17-1 in the Steelers’ last 58 games against a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6; O/U 42.5)
Colts ATS: 3-6
Colts O/U: 1-8
Colts average total game points: 35
Colts as underdog: 2-2 SU/2-2 ATS
The Colts have had a turbulent week with the firing of Frank Reich and the hiring of Jeff Saturday after losing SU and ATS to the Patriots last week in Foxboro. They’ll be on the road again this week as they head to Vegas to take on the Raiders, who are also struggling. Indianapolis is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record but only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games and 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.
Raiders ATS: 3-5
Raiders O/U: 4-3-1
Raiders average total game points: 48
Raiders as favorite: 2-4 SU/2-4 ATS
The Raiders blew another big lead in their loss SU and ATS vs. the Jaguars last week and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing record. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, though. The over is 4-2 in the Raiders' last six games, 11-5 in their last 16 home games and 4-1 in their last five games vs. the Colts.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (+5; O/U 43)
Cowboys ATS: 6-2
Cowboys O/U: 3-5
Cowboys average total game points: 39.5
Cowboys as favorite: 3-0 SU/3-0 ATS
Dallas returns from its bye week after going 6-1 SU/6-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Cowboys have struggled recently vs. the Packers, going 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS in their last nine regular-season meetings, dating back to 2009. They have been playing well on the road lately, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The under is 6-2-1 in Dallas’s last 9 games overall and in its last nine road games.
Packers ATS: 3-6
Packers O/U: 3-6
Packers average total game points: 38
Packers as underdog: 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS
The Packers’ season continued to free fall last week as they lost their fifth straight game SU. They’ve also only covered in one of those five contests. Green Bay is still 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five home games and 2-6 ATS in its last eight games against the NFC. The under is 7-3 in Green Bay’s last 10 games overall and 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these two perennial NFC powerhouses.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3; O/U 43)
Cardinals ATS: 4-4
Cardinals O/U: 4-4-1
Cardinals average total game points: 49.4
Cardinals as underdog: 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS
Arizona lost SU and ATS at home to the Seahawks and is now 0-6 ATS in its last six divisional games. While the Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games, they are just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games and 1-11 SU in their last 12 games vs. the Rams. The under is 20-8 in the Cardinals’ last 28 road games and 11-3 in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.
Rams ATS: 2-5-1
Rams O/U: 2-6
Rams average total game points: 38
Rams as favorite: 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS
The Rams managed to get a push ATS on the road in Tampa Bay but lost SU. They are only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The under is 5-1 in L.A.’s last six games, 5-1 in its last six against NFC and 21-8 in its last 29 home games.
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7; O/U 45.5)
Chargers ATS: 5-3
Chargers O/U: 4-4
Chargers average total game points: 48.8
Chargers as underdog: 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS
The Chargers were able to go on the road and beat the Falcons SU and ATS last week, improving to 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. They’ll travel again this week for Sunday Night Football vs. San Francisco. The Chargers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings with the 49ers. The over is 10-4 in the Chargers' last 14 games and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
49ers ATS: 4-4
49ers O/U: 3-5
49ers average total game points: 40.4
49ers as favorite: 3-3 SU/ 3-3 ATS
San Francisco is coming back from its bye week and has been playing well, going 13-7 SU/14-6 ATS in its last 20 games. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last six games following a bye week, 5-1 in their last six games against a team with a winning record and 12-4 in their last 16 games overall.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5; O/U 44)
Commanders ATS: 4-4-1
Commanders O/U: 3-6
Commanders average total game points: 39
Commanders as underdog: 2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS
The Commanders had won three in a row SU and ATS and were in a good spot to make it four in a row before the Vikings rallied late to hand them a SU loss and an ATS push instead in Week 9. Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against the Eagles, 1-6 SU in its last seven divisional matchups and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 MNF games. The under is 4-0 in the Commanders' four divisional games and 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
Eagles ATS: 5-3
Eagles O/U: 5-3
Eagles average total game points: 45
Eagles as favorite: 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS
The Eagles won SU vs. the Texans last Thursday but were unable to cover the spread. They have won both SU and ATS in all four of their home games this season and are again heavily favored for this primetime game on Monday. They have been the favorite in every one of their 2022 contests and have had double-digit spreads in their last three games. The over is 8-1 in Philadelphia’s last nine home games and 5-1 in its last six games against a team with a losing record. The over is also 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams with the Eagles as the home team.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.