The Patriots will be playing their third game in the last 12 days, as they host the Bills at Gillette Stadium. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season, as they’ll meet up again to close the season in Buffalo on January 8th. Let’s go over three plays I like for tonight to sweat along with tonight.
Neither of these teams have been strong with the over this season. The Bills come into this game as one of the worst in the league with a 3-8 record, while failing to cover by an average of 3.5 points. The Patriots have a better record than the Bills but are still 5-6 to the over themselves. To go even further on this, the Bills haven’t hit the over in any of their six road games thus far. I’m personally not a huge trends guy but that’s one that’s hard to ignore.
As for tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots take a run heavy approach in this game in an attempt to keep Josh Allen off the field. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league and are running the ball 45% of the time, which ranks them 12th. With Damien Harris out, it’ll be the Rhamondre Stevenson show once again. When Harris has been out or left the game, Stevenson averages over 15 carries per game. We’ve also seen Devin Singletary getting more carries out of the backfield, which has been a theme since Allen’s elbow injury. Singletary has carried the ball 45 times over the last three weeks. While the Patriots run defense has been good, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the ground game from the Bills.
Sticking with that rushing theme, I like Allen to go over his yardage tonight. The Patriots haven’t faced many rushing quarterbacks this season but when they have, they’ve been burned. On the year, the Patriots have allowed a total of 270 rushing yards to the position, which is sixth in the league. However, 70% of those yards came from two of the best on the ground in Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson. They gained a combined 189 yards on just 25 carries, good for 7.5 yards per carry.
This is a yardage prop that Allen has been smashing as of late. He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games and seven of his 11 games. He’s currently averaging 51 per game, which is well above this number tonight. Against a team that does a solid job at generating pressure on the quarterback, I expect Allen to be on the move early and often in this game.
This props feels like it’s off by a reception. I would’ve expected this to be at 1.5, which in that case I’d pass. But, at 2.5, I’m interested in the under. Sure, Henry has gone over this number in two of his last three games but that hasn’t been the case for the majority of the season. This 2.5 number is one he’s gone under in seven of the 11 games he’s played while averaging exactly three targets per game. The Patriots aren’t a team that targets their tight ends like they did when Rob Gronkowski was on the team. Currently, tight ends are only drawing 19% of the total target share, which ranks them 18th in the league. For reference, the Ravens top the league at 42.5%. Against a position the Bills have successfully defended against, I like going under 2.5 for Henry tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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