Here are my favorite player props for the Week 13 of the 2022 NFL regular season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
At first, I was looking at Lawrence’s passing yards prop. The over on that is a solid play, but this one is the superior option after looking at the numbers.
On the season, Lawrence has only gone over this number five times in 11 games. But all five of those performances have come in Jacksonville’s last seven games. And this prop looks even more appealing once you look at what opposing quarterbacks have done vs. Detroit.
Eight of the 11 quarterbacks who’ve faced the Lions have gone over this number, rushing for at least 19 yards in each of those instances. One of the exceptions was Dak Prescott in his first game back from injury. The others were Bailey Zappe — who did little as a runner while starting for the Pats — and Kirk Cousins — who lost a yard on his lone rushing attempt vs. Detroit.
This feels like an overreaction to Cook’s Thanksgiving Day performance. He averaged a measly 1.91 yards per carry, totalling only 42 yards on 22 attempts. While it was the third time he’s logged under 50 rushing yards in a game this season, the Patriots have been creating problems for opposing running backs. As much as some running backs didn’t put up great numbers against the Jets, the same cannot be said of them.
Five running backs have gone over this number vs. Jets. While that’s not a high rate of success for running backs, each of those performances have come in New York’s last eight games. And Rhamondre Stevenson came five yards short of this number in his second game vs. the Jets during this span, but he only needed eight carries to log 65 yards.
Believe it or not, this number is quite high for Heinicke. He had his 279-yard “outburst” vs. the Colts in Week 8, and then he managed 211 passing yards vs. Philadelphia. Now, both of those games were on the road, so that plays into Heinicke hitting the over. Still, the under has hit on his passing yards prop five times in six chances.
And while the Giants haven’t been the most elite team when it comes to limiting passing yards, they’ve held three quarterbacks under 200 passing yards and only allowed four to go over 250. Each of those three sub-200-yard passing performances vs. the Giants came at MetLife Stadium and just one of the plus-250 performances. (The one in between at MetLife was Cooper Rush’s 215-yard showing in Week 3.)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.