Bowl season is just insane. Given the motivation of certain teams, opt outs, the transfer portal, etc. we’ve just never seen line movement like this before. I’ve been doing my best to post some plays to Twitter, some at good numbers, some that have already moved a lot. So I’ll use those plays along with some news ones here that I’m looking to bet this Bowl season, with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
For all my plays make sure you follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow.
I will put out a separate article for the College Football Playoff closer to when those games are played.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington State
December 17 (3:30 pm ET)
Fresno State -3 (-110) — 1-unit
This is one of the games I got a good number on early and by the time I was ready to put out the play the number had gotten away. I played Fresno as a dog, but on December 13 I put them out as a smaller play at -3. I agree with the move, and generally these moves are profitable to chase come Bowl season.
The Bullsdogs have been terrific since getting QB Jake Haener, winning the MW Championship. They should be a full go in this game against a Wazzu squad that doesn’t have as much to play for.
New Mexico Bowl: SMU vs. BYU
December 17 (7:30 pm ET)
SMU -3.5 (-110) — 1-unit
Another one with a big move here. I jumped on SMU at -120 moneyline, but I’d play them out to -4. We could see this one grow to a TD if we get the news I think we will. A BYU player said it’d be a miracle if QB Jaren Hall were to play, and it sounds like he’ll be one of many key piece missing after a disappointing season for the Cougars. BYU should be down to a third-stringer at QB, while SMU will have most key starters outside of their WR1. That hurts the Mustangs, but not close to the expected losses of BYU.
Cheez-IT Bowl: Oklahoma vs. FSU
December 29 (5:30 pm ET)
I personally grabbed some FSU -6.5 here, and am hoping we can get some -7 or better before this one kicks. Oklahoma had an awful year, leading players into the portal as well as some opt outs. With both teams at full strength I’d lay this with FSU, but I feel OU will be without much more than FSU. The Seminoles had a great season, and should have a lot of key pieces to their success in for this game.
If we don’t get the number I want here, I may put them out in a moneyline parlay with Clemson in the -120 range. Tennessee is obviously already down Hendon Hooker, but a lot of pass-catchers have opted out as well. Clemson will have talented freshman Cade Klubnik looking to prove his worth at QB.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Texas
December 29 (9:00 pm ET)
This just feels like a game Washington wants. I was shocked to see them go from +3.5 to +6, but the number is coming back down. Doesn’t matter, as they should win this one outright. Texas had its issues during the regular season, and should have plenty of opt outs (including RB Bijan Robinson). Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. announced his decision to return to the Huskies next season, which should encourage a lot of talent to play alongside him.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame
December 30 (3:30 pm ET)
The Irish are down way too many key pieces in this game, and they don’t even seem to care. QB Drew Pyne is gone, and Michael Mayer and Isaiah Foskey (most important players on each side of the ball) are off to the NFL. Marcus Freeman has essentially come out and said that the Bowl game isn’t his focus — recruiting is. I expect minimal prep for a Gamecocks team that just upset both Tennessee and Clemson to end the regular season. Like Washington, forget the shrinking number here. I like SC outright.
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Kansas State vs. Alabama
December 31 (12:00 pm ET)
I won’t even list the amount of Alabama players in the portal, because depending on when you read this the number could keep jumping. We are well into double digits as I write this article though. So why in the world would players like Bryce Young and Will Anderson play in this game? They won’t. This should be a massive down spot for ‘Bama, whereas Kansas State will play their guys and look for the big win.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky
December 31 (12:00 pm ET)
Iowa ML (+105) — 1.5-units
I put this one out on twitter when Will Levis was officially ruled out to prep for the NFL, but I’m fine laying a little juice on the moneyline on the Hawkeyes. This is a gross game, and I don’t think we see 30 total points on the board. But we’ve seen Kentucky without Levis and it wasn’t pretty. The Wildcats that will be playing on offense are in trouble against this Iowa defense.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Tulane vs. USC
January 2 (1:00 pm ET)
Tulane ML (+115) — 1.5-units
Obviously, we see Tulane and USC is a coin-flip game and know something is off. I’m just expecting a skeleton squad here from the Trojans. Caleb Williams has his hamstring issue, and a lot of the elite weapons around him have already opted out. By the time this game is played, I’d expect a lot of backups for USC, and a solid Tulane team to be going after this like their Super Bowl. Even at full strength, this USC squad really struggles on defense.
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Utah
January 2 (5:00 pm ET)
Utah ML (-130) — 1.5-units
Big Utes guy here. We won on Utah’s win total in three of the last four seasons, and had PAC-12 futures on them the last two seasons. Last year my biggest wager for Bowl season was Utah against Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. They covered for us, but fell apart late when it came to getting the game outright.
I think we see the Utes finish the job this time around. Penn State can struggle with in-game adjustments, and Utah always gets stronger as the game goes on.
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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.