The 49ers continue to pile up the injuries and the wins, as they head to Seattle to kick off Week 15. Now without Deebo Samuel, the Niners will look to make it seven straight wins at the rambunctious Lumen Field. I’ll have three bets to consider while you watch along tonight on Amazon Prime.
I really like the under for this game tonight for a number of reasons. Quarterback Brock Purdy enters tonight questionable with two separate injuries to his oblique and ribs. While he’s expected to play, I wouldn’t be surprised, on the short week, that the Niners look to go with a run heavy game plan. The Seahawks have one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and over 4.5 yards per carry. With the loss of key offensive contributors, it would shock almost no one to see Christian McCaffrey to handle a good chunk of those offensive play calls. After only carrying the ball seven times in Week 11 against the Cardinals, McCaffrey has averaged 14 carries in three games since with 217 rushing yards. He’ll be a huge factor tonight.
The Niners defense has also been incredibly strong over the past month. Over their last four games, they’ve allowed a TOTAL of just 34 points to the Cardinals, Saints, Dolphins and Buccaneers. It’s a mixed bag of offenses on this list but when you’re averaging just 8.5 points per game to your opponent, you’re clearly doing something right. The Seahawks offense will be whole again with the return of Kenneth Walker but I still expect another low scoring game from these two divisional opponents.
While I’m praising how good the Niners defense has been, there is still aspects to take advantage of on the Seahawks side. In particular, the matchup for Metcalf is one of the better ones overall. Rarely leaving the left side of the field, as he lines up there on 64% of his snaps, he’ll see a lot of Niners CB Deommodroe Lenoir. In coverage, Lenoir has allowed a 69% reception rate and over 11 yards per receptions. Standing a 5’ 10”, Metcalf has a good size advantage on him as well, listed at 6’3”. He continues to dominate the target share for the Seahawks, averaging just under 8.5 targets per game and 26% of the overall team share. In what is expected to be a close game, indicated by the 3.5 point spread, we should see plenty of opportunities for Metcalf. Geno Smith has been one of the more accurate deep passers this season as well, making 49 pass attempts of 20+ yards and completing 51% of them. Amongst eligible quarterbacks, his completion percentage ranks fourth-best in the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook has this cool market where you can bet the spread, over/under or winner of player props between two players. You can view the entire H2H Player Market to view all the offerings. One that caught my eye was going over 1.5 touchdowns scored between McCaffrey and Metcalf. I’ve given love to both players here so I think this is one to take advantage of at +160. While you would get better odds of +360 if you put them in a Same Game Parlay to score an anytime TD, this bet can hit even if one of them doesn’t score and the other scores twice, like McCaffrey in his strong matchup against the poor Seahawks run defense. As I mentioned, Metcalf also has one of the best matchups in coverage against Lenoir and is generating over 41% of the Seahawks red zone targets. If you’re looking to take a shot on some plus money odds, this is one to consider.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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