Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Week 15 of the NFL season.
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
Backing Indy after what happened in Week 14 might seem unsettling, but the market movement surrounding this game has kept the Colts on my radar all week.
After opening at 5.5, this dipped down to five points following Week 14. Within a span of about 24 hours, that dipped all the way down to four points even — until dropping to 3.5 early Friday morning. But what’s so strange about this movement is all the money has gone toward the Vikings. So, the Colts are getting fewer points even though they’re getting minimal backing. Doesn’t make much sense — unless you look at the breakdown of the dollars.
Indy is only getting 16% of the ATS bets for this game, but the Colts make up 28% of the handle. It appears the sharps like Indy. Seeing what that backing has done to the line, seems we’re lucky to get this before it drops to +3.
Andrews has gone over this number more often than not this season, but that 7-5 mark is a lot less convincing when you consider the quarterback situation. Sure, Andrews went over this number with Tyler Huntley in Week 13, but only barely. That Week 13 battle was also against a Broncos team that’s given up a hefty amount of yards to tight ends since Week 6. Only a handful of tight ends have gone over this number vs. the Browns — and two of the tight ends who went over this number did so in the same week.
On top of all that, the under is 7-5 on Andrews’ receiving yards prop this season — so the book has a good read on him. And if anything goes slightly sideways with Huntley, we’ve already seen how the Ravens struggle to get Andrews the ball in that scenario.
After DJ Moore was a full participant at practice to start the week, he was limited on Friday and is now questionable to play in Week 15. He is unquestionably Darnold’s favorite target, and we saw in Week 14 what can happen with the passing game with Moore sidelined while Darnold is under center.
Even if Moore gets the green light, I still like the under. Darnold has gone under this number in both his starts, and the under on his passing prop also hit in both those games. Moreover, the Steelers have been dominating subpar opposing quarterbacks of late. Since Week 10, only one quarterback has logged over 200 yards (Joe Burrow) and only one other quarterback has gone over this number (Matt Ryan - 199 yards).
The Patriots are only 2-4 ATS as underdogs, but those four ATS losses came against playoff-caliber teams (Dolphins in Miami, Baltimore with a healthy Lamar Jackson, the Vikings and Bills). The Raiders are technically in the playoff picture, but their three-game winning streak was just snapped by Baker Mayfield and the Rams.
While the Patriots are far from a finished product themselves, their defense has been tough throughout the entirety of the season. Other than Davante Adams getting his, there’s nothing trustworthy about this Raiders offense. Much like on MNF vs. the Cardinals, New England’s defense could very well earn the Patriots a straight-up win in Week 15.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.