We kick off Week 16 with a Jaguars and Jets matchup on Thursday Night Football. I’ll give three bets to sweat along with as you watch tonight.
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The Jets have been one of the best teams at covering the spread in the first half. Coming into this game, they’ve gone 9-5 on the season. If you blindly bet them during the season, you’d be up 3.5 units. Despite the Jaguars offense coming alive over the last few weeks, this is undoubtedly the toughest matchup they’ve had to endure. The Jets have allowed just an average of 193 passing yards per game and 305 total yards per game. The Jags haven’t been a strong team with the first half spread themselves, going just 6-8 on the season.
Jones may have quietly overtaken Christian Kirk as the the WR1 on the Jaguars. When he’s been healthy, Jones has averaged 8.1 targets and 58.8 yards per game. He lines up all over the field, so he’ll be able to avoid Sauce Gardner at times in coverage. A breakdown of Jones’ snaps shows that lines up a combined 70% out wide and 30% in the slot. Since Week 12, Jones has seen at least 13 snaps in the slot, which would give him the best matchup in coverage tonight. With the chemistry he and Trevor Lawrence have formed, I think he’ll easily go over this total, especially if the Jaguars fall behind. Of the 13 games he’s played, Jones has gone over 44.5 receiving yards seven times.
Knight comes into this game listed as questionable but the consensus seems to be that he’ll play. Knight has overtaken the RB1 role on this team, averaging just under 15 carries per game. Looking at his red zone usage, he’s completely dominating the red zone touches, handling 9 of the possible 10 amongst running backs since Week 12. While the Jaguars isn’t giving up a ton of rushing yards per game, checking in at just under 90 per game, they have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns. Those touchdowns are tied for the fourth-most in the league, which should give Knight some solid opportunities in this game. The weather forecast is also calling for rain all throughout the night, so the run could be very active in this contest.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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