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NBA Best Bets: NBA Picks and Betting Trends on DraftKings Sportsbook for December 5

Julian Edlow gives his best bets and betting trends on DraftKings Sportsbook.

NBA: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

I got back to posted NBA first quarter and first half trends on Wednesday last week, and the plays have gotten off to a pretty decent start (7-3 on 1Q/1H plays since Wednesday). The Monday betting card in the NBA actually doesn’t line up with too many spots, but there is a full game side I may trust, as well as a first half trend that does align for us to back on DraftKings Sportsbook.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors

BOS ML (+105)

I haven’t backed the Celtics yet, but it’s going to be tough to pass them up as an underdog for the first time all season, particularly with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both expected to play.

Boston was a short favorite on Monday morning, but after a win in Brooklyn on Sunday night, there was the obvious potential for rest on the road back-to-back. As you’d expect, Al Horford will sit, but that could be it. Malcolm Brogdon was listed as questionable with an illness, and while I expect him to sit, his availability would just be a bonus. The C’s are already offsetting Brogdon’s value with the return of Marcus Smart, who sat out on Sunday.

The red flag here is that Toronto is in a good spot. For all the inconsistencies, the Raptors have been a good home team (9-2 SU/8-3 ATS) and a good bet as a favorite (9-3 SU). Playing north of the boarder hasn’t been an issue for this Celtics squad though, covering nine consecutive games in Toronto.

A big part of this price is also that the Celtics come in with no rest days, but they’ve been very good in that role in the early going this season. Boston is 4-0 on the second game of back-to-backs this season, winning by an average of 16.3 points. The Celts are 3-1 ATS in those games, covering by 8.3 points per contest.

So while the spot is strong for the Raptors, I’m not too sure the Celtics won’t just be too much for the home team to handle offensively. So if Tatum and Brown ultimately are confirmed in, I’ll likely be on the Celtics.


Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors

GSW 1H -6.5 (-110)

1.25-units

I wrote up the Pacers in my article on Friday, getting off to the worst starts in the NBA — 4-16-1 1Q ATS and 6-15 1H ATS, and we faded them and cashed the 1H on the Jazz when they played in Utah over the weekend. While I passed in Portland, the Pacers also were unable to cover the half in that one, making them 6-17 1H ATS on the season.

Indy has trailed its road games by an average of 6.6 points per game at intermission, and that number is 11.7 over the last three road games on this west coast trip. Tyrese Haliburton, who missed the last game, will remain out in Golden State on Monday.

The Warriors have been a decent 1H ATS team if you just glance at their numbers, but their dominance has really come at home. The Dubs are 9-3 1H ATS in their own building, leading by an average of 6.3 points per game (8.7 over the last three).

The numbers tell us this one could get out of hand early.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.