The QBE Shootout is an off-season PGA TOUR event (not official) that takes place in Naples, Florida and features a unique team format. The event features just 12 teams of two players each and is played over three days in a 54-hole stroke-play event.
The format for this event changes on all three days. The first day, players compete in a “scramble” format, where both players tee off on each hole and then choose which drive is better. Afterwards, the team plays their next stroke from within a club-length of the better drive, repeating that procedure until the hole is done.
The second day features “greensomes” which is a modified alternate-shot format. Both players tee off on each hole and the ball finishing in the better position is chosen. The players then alternate shots on the single ball until the hole is finished.
The third day is the most straightforward as players compete in a regular “best-ball” format. Each golfer plays their own ball and the best score between the two is taken.
This event has quite a long history dating back into the late 1980’s and has seen several different individuals repeat as winners. Harris English and Matt Kuchar (+650) have played this event together numerous times and are now three-time winners grabbing the trophy in 2013, 2016 and 2020. Jason Day (2015), Steven Stricker (2012) and Brian Harman (2019) are other past winners that are in the field this week.
The event will be held at Tiburón Golf Club in Naples, Florida, where it’s been located for about two decades now. This event doesn’t typically need a ton of analysis. It’s an easier setup and a fun week for the players. As a result, the champions have almost always included at least one elite putter (and often two). Last season, the duo of Kevin Na and Jason Kokrak won, with Kokrak ending the year ranked sixth in strokes gained putting stats on the PGA TOUR. For betting, we’ll be looking at both long and short-term form and emphasizing those trending well in putting stats over the last few months.
All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
These two players haven’t been in this event in each of the past three seasons, but both men are coming in off very solid 2022 seasons, nonetheless. Stallings was a force in the playoffs, landing a second-place finish at the BMW Championship, while also making four cuts in a row over the fall. Mullinax followed a similar path, grabbing a win in the late summer in Kentucky and then following that up with a huge T5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude, the first playoff stop of the year. Considering the form these two have shown of late, it’s curious to see +1100 on offer for them in this small field, especially with many of the other top players not having played much competitive golf this fall.
Mullinax was great with his putter in his last start over the fall as well, gaining over 4.6 strokes putting in a T4 finish in Houston. I’d look for he and Stallings to be one of the more competitive teams this week with both likely eager to cash in on some good form with a win.
There’s a pretty solid argument to be made that the Kevin Kisner/Max Homa duo should be the favorite this week in the betting odds. Kisner is a former runner-up at the Zurich Classic (the yearly team event on the PGA TOUR) and has a great match-play and team event record. Homa is the highest ranked golfer in the field (in terms of the OWGR) and won in his first start of the fall at the Fortinet Championship. This will also be the second year in a row that these two golfers have played together at this event as the duo finished in fifth place last year, five shots behind the eventual winning group of Kokrak and Na.
Kisner’s lack of play in the fall may be keeping the odds down on this team, but he’s shown us numerous times throughout his career that he’s capable of having an elite putting week even if he’s coming in off a longer layoff. He posted a T29 in his last start at the RSM Classic (where he gained 1.4 strokes putting) and has the most talented partner in the field. There’s no reason to avoid taking a flyer on this group who only have the fourth-highest betting odds in the 12-man field.
If you’re looking for a team that could take advantage of some easier scoring and a first-round format (scramble) that encourages aggressiveness, then Keith Mitchell and JJ Spaun are likely your best target. Both men had some solid results to end the fall swing with Spaun finishing T15 in each of his last two starts. Both players can also be very up and down in both putting and approach metrics but they’re also perfect one round “spike” candidates and available at solid +800 odds to lead after round one.
The lack of experience playing this event, and just overall inconsistency these two both have with the putter doesn't make them great outright targets. However, for our round one bets, you have to love the potential they possess. Considering they sit with the seventh-highest odds, they make for a great team to target on the DraftKings Sportsbook in the first-round leader market.
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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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