I’m looking to bounce-back from an 0-3 Tuesday on the short NBA card, so normally an 11-game Wednesday slate would be just the thing. The problem is, I’m not seeing many spots I like on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I’ll go over a couple of the trends that I considered, but never really got there on. Instead, I want to highlight a market we offer on DraftKings Sportsbook that I don’t think many people know about, and could also offer some value. I do have one best bet that I’ve placed and will dish out at the end.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Somehow with 11 games we just aren’t getting the right matchups to ride any good trends on this slate. Here are a few that jumped out to me, but you’ll see in the numbers why I ultimately didn’t trust them as bets. I may look to add some of them as smaller plays later in the day, but until then, they’re here for you if you have any interest:
- Grizzlies 1H -4.5 (-110): Memphis is 8-3 1H ATS at home this season, and if I play it, it’s because of how hot they’ve been lately (+7.5 PPG in the first half at home this season, including +9.7 over the last three games overall). OKC has trailed by 3.6 points per game on the road at half this season and is a pedestrian 6-7 1H ATS. Close to a play, but this pesky Thunder team concerns me.
- Timberwolves 1H -3 (-110): This would be a Pacers fade, which you should know if you read the article. Indy is 7-17 1H ATS with a -5.4 PPG margin in the first half. That said, Indy showed up shorthanded at Golden State (a good 1H team at home), and the Wolves are just 4-9 1H ATS at home this season. This one will certainly be a pass for me.
- Jazz 1H -4.5 (-110): The Jazz have been solid out of the gates at home, even since the expected regression we’ve seen from them. Utah is 8-4 1H ATS at home with a +5.8 margin in points. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been two different teams at home versus on the road. Away from home, GSW is 2-10 1H ATS with a -3.4 PPG at the half. I came close on this one, just like the Grizzlies, but the Warriors are sitting their core for this game. There just isn’t enough data to prove that these backups won’t come out and hang around, although the bench has been pretty poor this season. Still considering a play.
Now here’s a player prop market I’m going to guess most of you didn’t know existed — first quarter points. Just like the quarter/halves spreads and totals, I think we can maybe scrape up a little value on some of these numbers. I’m not betting many quite yet, but one does jump out to me tonight. Let’s start to put some of these on our radar:
- Julius Randle OVER 6.5 (+115): Averages 7.8 1Q PPG in 9.7 minutes. Plus-money very attractive.
- Ja Morant OVER 7.5 (-125): Averages 8.8 1Q PPG in 9.9 minutes. Up to 9.0 1Q PPG with Desmond Bane out.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 8.5 (-125): Second in the NBA averaging 9.4 1Q PPG in 11.4 minutes.
- Jayson Tatum OVER 6.5 (+100): Even money makes this one appealing, red flag being just 8.4 minutes per first quarter. But averages 8.0 1Q PPG.
- Jordan Poole OVER 6.5 (-105): This would likely be my play if I fire on one of these tonight. Warriors sitting their core, and in the two games without Stephen Curry, Poole averages 8.5 1Q PPG in 9.7 minutes.
Boston initially put out a pretty clean injury report, but now Al Horford has entered protocols. That dropped the moneyline down to a pick’em, and I still like the Celtics. It’s tough not to back this team when you’re getting anything near a pick — Boston just won its first game of the season as an underdog on Monday in Toronto.
I don’t think this will be a lookahead spot to the Warriors on Saturday night, as the team will have a couple of days off between to prepare for their NBA Finals revenge. Some size would be nice against De’Andre Ayton, but Blake Griffin and Luke Kornet have filled in much better than expected of late. I think there’s much more of a mismatch on the perimeter with Phoenix trying to defend Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Malcolm Brogdon also returns from a one-game absence to play in this game.
C’s are locked in right now, and I’ll take them as a pick in almost any scenario.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.